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Blazing Rattles

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The railroad is set to jet through Rock Ridge and Hoofy and Boo both have vested interests in the direction of the oncoming lights.

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"Come on, boys! The way you're lollygaggin' around here with them picks and shovels, you'd think it was a hundert an' twenty degrees! It can't be more than a hundert an' fourteen!"


Hey cowboy, is that a ten gallon hat in your lap or are you just enjoying the show? Lili Von Shtupp posed that question in the Mel Brooks classic Blazing Saddles but she might as well have been talking about the tape.

Welcome to the wild, wild pest, where men are men and Mongo is nervous. He's nervous about missing the rally, he's nervous about the extended price action and he's nervous about the signs of stagflation* percolating under this seemingly calm surface. You can't blame the big guy for having some agita. The railroad is set to jet through Rock Ridge and Hoofy and Boo both have vested interests in the direction of the oncoming lights.

So, without further adieu, and as my Monday morning is already behind the gun, I offer the following thoughts as we fire up for a fresh five:

  • I had a fabu sit down with Jon "Dow 21,000 in by 2012" Markman on Friday and was impressed by his candor and acumen. I humbly offered, when asked if I agreed with his assessment, that yes, we could see that level, but only if the dollar slippage picks up in a big, bad way. And the only way that could happen is if foreign holders of dollar denominated assets don't balk, which is why the isolationism and nationalization dynamics are situations to keep close tabs on.

  • There's a great article on the back page of the WSJ C-section today, penned by the uber-insightful breakingviews.com team, sharing thoughts on an NBC-Yahoo deal. I offered my vibes on potential synergies between News Corp. and Dow Jones last week and, while I have no edge on whether this other deal is being noodled, it taps alotta the same synergies. We've been talking about the media evolution on Minyanville for many years. Networks are no longer dictated by television channels, they're manifestations of multimedia properties and online communities. Input, output or, kaput!

  • Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Monday that Iran will retaliate if the U.S. strikes after Vice President Cheney said from a carrier in the Persian Gulf that the U.S. would not allow Iran to gain nuclear technology. He also said Iran had agreed for the benefit of the Iraqi people to meet with the U.S. in Baghdad to discuss security in Iraq. "They (the U.S.) cannot strike Iran," he said at a press conference during a 2-day visit to the UAE. "The Iranian people can protect themselves and retaliate."

  • On the deal front, there were five IPOs and twelve secondaries last week (all came within or above the range) and there will be an additional eleven IPOs (and seven follow-ons) this week as a broad selection of industries look to raise money before the traditional Memorial Day lull. Man, where did spring go?

  • One of the Ruby Peck Foundations favorite beneficiaries is Little Kid's Rock, which distributes musical instruments to public school children. This Thursday, at the House of Blues in LA , they'll be hosting a hekuva fun heavy metal soiree and charity auction for the West Coast flava. Area Minyans should definitely check it out.

  • "Most of the smart, successful, seasoned traders are cautious of this market. They are fearful of stocks on steroids and too much hype and adrenaline. It's a young lion's market. The older traders have been burned and learned – perhaps to their determent. But that's the baggage of experience." Well said and very true.

  • Reaction to news is more important than news itself but please understand that virtually everything offered by the FOMC last week could have been a viable catalyst for a stagflation fueled, downside migration. That's bullish (hands over eyes on Friday) but it warrants consideration regardless.

  • Today's tape? Pink piggies (BKX and XBD), both of which remain under key levels (118 and 260, respectively). Breadth is skewed Boo, the dollar is non-descript and the CRB is slightly above 310, which could be a good omen for equities (in a rising tide sense, particularly if the greenback slack begins to spin). The commodity index must first push through 311, however, with is both the 50- and 200-day moving average.

  • If ya see Weezie, please let her know that we're moving on up (on up) on the East Side (on up), to a snazzy MVHQ in the sky. Over the course of the next week, we'll be transitioning the 'Ville to bigger digs so we can continue to build the dream that YOU help create. The disruption should be minimal, at least until President Fish finds that grilled cheese sandwich I put in his bottom drawer the day after he joined the company.


Hit 'em hard, Minyans, and let's put some jingle in our jeans to start the freaky week.

R.P.

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No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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