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Randoms: Getting Ready for Breakfast with Beeks


Unemployment results will shape the tape.


Do you wanna play tetherball? Not right now Napoleon but I can't blame you for your complex (given you're so short) as this tape has more swings than a Hedonism vacation. For my part, I'm not that short but I am leaning that way, sorta like a guy named Neil.

In addition to the handful of S&P puts I added this morning around S&P 935 (perhaps early with an eye towards S&P 950), I double dipped my wick in Amazon (AMZN) puts as it's a retailer-some would say the retailer-and that complex is under pressure. AMZN $87 is either a double top (negative) or acne (positive breakout) and my risk is defined on the other side of that line.

It's worth noting I'm playing smallish for two reasons. First, Breakfast with Beeks looms large and given sentiment surrounding unemployment, the potential for an upside surprise might outweigh a Debbie Downer. The trick to that trade is that rallies typically end on good news (much like the news was horrid at the March lows) and if that proves true, we'll likely have a tighter and more defined entry level after the hounds are unleashed.

It's the whole denial-migration-panic thing, which is old hat for old school Minyans.

The second reason is that for the second time in three days, I'm heading to the ENT specialist near the bell and I abhor blind risk. I'm not crying in my coffee (I switch to caffeine free Diet Coke every day at 11:00 AM), I'm simply sharing the fare because I care.

I can count the number of hours I've slept this week on both hands but that won't stop me from swinging by The Lion tonight to share hugs and handshakes with Grandpa Charlie and Bubbie Eggers. If seeing old friends is good for the soul, seeing really old friends must be really good!

The following vibe was offered on the Buzz this morning by Professor Branden "Stokely" Rife:

The industrial sector is still seeing mud... not shoots.

Click here to enlarge.

If you think a 34 bps improvement in Fastenal's May y/y sales vs. April y/y (after experiencing a 368 bps y/y worsening in April vs. March) is a meaningful improvement in the rate of change from a major wholesaler and retailer of industrial and construction supplies is a green shoot, then maybe we can really try to find something worth grasping onto in this space with the third derivative (i.e. the rate of change of acceleration).

This is yet another mid quarter hint at what industrial companies are really seeing as opposed to what people perceive they should be seeing. Emerson (EMR) made specific comments on May 19th in an 8k filing that gave everyone the early quarter wink. Eaton (ETN) had similar conference comments that same day.

In summary, what I am trying to communicate is that too many people are expecting too much too soon from the industrial sector. EMR, ETN and FAST are empirical evidence of exactly that.

And finally, some quickie vibes while I've gotcha:

  • So banks are trying to delay accounting changes that would force off-balance sheet vehicles back on their books? Is anyone else channeling Bennet and having a very acute sense of deja vu?

  • Pink pussycats today include the Huggies and Druggies (also known as pharma and consumer non-durables).

  • What is the most important chart that nobody is paying attention to? The flag formation in the BKX, which is about to "schvitz or get off the pot." As go the piggies, so goes the pooh.

  • Get over it, go out with someone else! It's human nature to return to a stock you lost money in with an agenda for revenge. For what it's worth, I've learned that the best thing to do is move on to new opportunities as emotion is the enemy when trading.

  • If you're fortunate enough to be in a position to give, please help us help tomorrow's dreamers, teachers, healers, leaders and visionaries. The Minyanville community is all about giving back and we're doing so through The Ruby Peck Foundation for Children's Education, effecting positive change in the name of my grandfather. Thank you ever so much-this, as you know, is near and dear to my heart.

  • As always, I hope this finds you well.


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