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Random Thoughts: Important Technical Junctures in the Dollar


If the dollar can jump through DXY 80, it'll break the longstanding trendline...

  • Yesterday, while the Minx was meandering around the flat line, we noted that the bacon was shaking Hoofy's confidence. In other words, with the financials under distribution at multi-year lows, we must treat any rallies as subject. We also offered that it felt like another shoe was about to drop. As it turned out, it wasn't a shoe. It was a boot. Right in Bonnie's butt.

  • What was the Jimmy Choo? According to the morning papers, "worries about bad mortgage bets and weak consumer spending intensified." Could be, I suppose, but the trigger, from where I sit, was the technical break through S&P 1405. As former support is current resistance, expect new static at that attic if and when we retest it.

  • I scribed my annual Ten Themes for 2008 and, while some won't be a shocker, others might surprise you. Last year's list was somewhat successful but these sorta things, much like trading, are only as good as your last effort.

  • "This is the first time since October 2002 all equity bullish percent indicators have been this low at the same time. That marked a nice low for equities. At that time, however, it paid to wait for reversals up to confirm the lows, rather than anticipating them. For now, risk remains extraordinarily high for equities." Pepe Depew on this morning's Buzz.

  • I've learned to that you can hear a lot if you simply listen to your soul.

  • A grabby greenback was one of our ten thoughts and while it's way early, the technical juncture is worth noting as it tries to put in a higher bottom. If it fails from here, we've got (negative) dandruff which could be positive for asset classes. If it can jump through DXY 80, it'll break the longstanding trendline (which would bode well for Boo on the equity side).

  • The following Buzz Bit appeared at 10:12 AM when the S&P futures were up eight... If you're an active trader, this sorta stuff would have helped you navigate the fluxy muck:

    • Breadth is flat and the piggies are pretty in pink, which is an overt negative given the hoppy futures. I would expect a probe lower unless or until either (or both) of these elements shift. From there? Well, we'll see. One step at a time Minyans as we fit the pieces together.

  • Hey, you know what continues to act great? Pharma and consumer non-durables. Heck, if you looked up "basing" in the dictionary, you would prolly see a picture of Proctor & Gamble (PG).

  • Remember Oscar Gamble? Best hair in baseball. And while we're talking old school ball, how bout some snaps to Goose Gossage on his Cooperstown nod. Outside of Thurman Munson, he was my favorite Yankee.

  • The big picture is made up of a series of smaller pictures. That applies to the market and it also pertains to stocks. Case in point is Baidu (BIDU). $350 was an important level--past support and current resistance--and $300 awaits below as new (and somewhat massive) support. This pup has more swings than a Hedonism vacation--and technicals are more of a context than a catalyst--but it's a helpful lens.

  • So you know and so it's said, it's long been my personal policy that politics have a place in the 'Ville only when they relate to or impact the financial markets. I saw this with the expectation that societal acrimony, stateside and abroad, will uptick into the presidential elections.

  • Everyone is tooling on Britney Spears but I've got more empathy than acrimony. As someone who has first hand experience with mental illness, I've learned to look past the "headlines" and ask "why" rather than "what." She's a sick girl and needs help. You would be surprised by how many people in society are in similar situations, undiagnosed and misunderstood.

  • Happy Hump, Minyans, and put some ritz on today!


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