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Random Thoughts

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Be careful of being too granular as folks follow the leader--by the time everyone focuses on the same tell, it's likely the tell will change.

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  • I've got one eye on the tape, another on the BKX 200-day (still below), another on the S&P trendline (same), another on the homies and pharma (flippin' the Red Dye after this morning's flags, another on Goldman (firmer than a college cheerleader), another on the dollar (sticky green), another on the 10-year (bounce holding), another on the NDX futes (almost flat) and another on NYSE internals (still 2:1 positive).

  • That's ten eyes, as far as I can tell, unless you count the homies and pharma separately, which would put me over the Minyan limit. Either way, there's a LOT going on and much to focus on, with or without expiration, which adds an entirely different layer of complexity to an already complex tape.

  • The good news is that, from a risk definition standpoint, there's meat on both sides of the trading bone. Hoofy is using S&P 1490 as his level of lore, while Boo is eyeing BKX 115 (116) and the right here, right now trendline in the S&P as the ursine backstop.

  • Gun to head? I wouldn't be shocked to see us fill the opening gaps in the S&P and NDX but if the breadth stays snazzy and the 10-year stays where it is (two monster ifs), Hoofy should be able to hold the line in this latest chapter of A.D.D. roulette.

  • Are you ready for some football?

  • The little bear on my left shoulder is whispering that the action in the NDX is screaming "We're heavy!" while the small bull on my right is saying "Dude, we just filled the opening gap--that's what you were looking for."

  • Remember last year when equity traders were focused on crude tick by tick? That is happening now, with the S&P acting as the mirror image of the 10-year.

  • We all know that higher rates, as a secular trend, will dent stocks. But be careful of being too granular as folks follow the leader--by the time everyone focuses on the same tell, it's likely the tell will change.

  • There's pretty decent open interest into Friday at the S&P 1500 and S&P 1525 strike. Sound familiar? Yeah, I know. Still, it is what it is and it's a part of the biz.

  • S&P 1490 remains the bogie in my book, as it's the last tangible support above S&P 1460.

  • Minyan Darol Munson notes YHOO $27.5, AAPL $120, SUNW $5, MSFT $30, OIH $170 and MO $70 as other potential pin candidates.

  • Is there a better closing segment in cinematic history?

  • Apple of Red Dye? This morning, when Apple couldn't participate with the jiggy futures, we offered that it likely bespoke supply. True to form, Mr. Newton is having his way.

  • What were you doing at the crack of dawn this morning? I was carrying two 45 pound plates up five flights of stairs. And I paid money to do it. Does that seem strange to anyone else?

  • The dollar is at a 4 1/2 year high against the Yen and an 11 week peak vs. the Euro (in part as a function of those higher rates). Coincidence that asset classes retreated en masse? I think not. Asset class deflation or dollar devaluation. Pick a side!

  • Congrats to the Yanks as they've battled all the way back to... .500?

  • "The news the other day with intervening in its currency market has some nervous that a wave of intervention amongst some of the world's leading banks may begin. This would be a warning sign for the carry trade unwind and could affect markets across the globe in all asset classes." Professor Sally Limantour on this morning's Buzz.

  • The Following Buzz took place between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM...

    Answers I Really Wanna Know...


R.P.

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