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Random Thoughts

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It's high time for the critters to teach children the importance of earning, spending, saving and giving.

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  • We noodled the risks of proprietary trading on Wall Street last week and sure nuff, some sticky situations abound. While odds are that they'll be contained, outlier risk remains, given the $370 trillion (not a typo) in outstanding derivative contracts.

  • If you wanna i-Play Apple in front of the i-Phone launch, please note that option volatility levels are massive. What's that mean in English? Buying calls OR puts and getting your desired move may still lose money (as premium drips after the event).

  • Was the Critter's Choice Awards really seven months ago? Man, time waits for no Minyan!

  • Man, it's muggy in Gotham today. Nothing like sticky shirts and sweaty brows at 6:00 AM, eh? It's weather like this that surely has Television's JeffMacke® pining for the comfy confines of Mill Valley. Hey, it's the price you pay for stardom, my friend. And for what it's worth, you're hitting your stride.

  • Da Crusha! In this corner, weighing 800 lbs, Mother Morgan is up a buck and change. In this corner, being weighed down by bets gone bad, Bear Stearns (-2%). The winner of this battle--and the tone of the financials--will tip the scales and tell the tale.

  • Sisyphus had nothing on my inbox.

  • We've been eyeing Blackstone as a pretty relevent event. That's tomorrow's business and that tone will go a long way in shaping sentiment and structure. Indeed, if risk and wealth transfer are juicing the tape, all eyes are on this IPO as potential tax-legislation looks to squeeze the breeze.

  • The S&P is togglin' near a very important level. Rally, and they'll trigger stops through S&P 1540. Fail, and you've got a text book double top. And you wanted to be a trader...

  • For the record and for what it's worth, I believe in Yahoo, both as a company and as a stock. I don't know what the catalyst is in the near-term but I'm a buyer of their web presence, particularly as we migrate to an "input-output" society. Soon, it won't matter what the screen is. It'll only matter how big the audience is. And they've got the Mott's in that regard.

  • Best Buy withdraws financial guidance due to uncertain macroeconomic conditions? Yeesh, hit me again Ike and this time put some stank on it!

  • Does anyone else (other than the crude market) notice the upticking tension in the Middle East? Saudi's King Abdullah said yesterday, while speaking in Spain, that the region is on the brink of "civil war" and the Arab-Israeli conflict "has taken on explosive dimensions." Not good, on so many different levels.

  • "Nuveen is getting taken over for over 25 times earnings. For those that don't know Nuveen, it is a muni bond shop that sells packaged products to retail. I view this as a watershed event in munis (read: bonds in general) just as I thought Sam Zell's REIT sale marked the high in REIT's. These folks at Nuveen aren't dumb. They are selling a 10% grower for 25x ( a PEG --Price/Earnings Growth Ration of a rather high 2.5x) at what is likely in the early stages of a secular bear market in bonds. In trading circles we would say, 'done that way, sold to you.' I continue to sell strength in bonds although this morning's rally is fading as I think it is likely to continue." Professor Bennet Sedacca on today's Buzz.

  • On this level, or at least my level, I'll be in serious juggle mode today as we have a massive in-house MV Kids meld. I know it's the other side of the content spectrum but I would be lying if I said I wasn't excited. It's high time for the critters to teach children the importance of earning, spending, saving and giving.


R.P.

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