Buzz Bits: Dow, Nasdaq Crawl Higher
Your daily Buzz & Banter highlights...
Grains and more... - Ryan Krueger - 3:25 PM
I spoke to my buddy, a big grain broker, this morning. Neither of us were surprised by the crop report only by the coverage. It means very little but all of the sudden it's on TV all day long. This report, to bring everybody in who may have just heard about it in passing is merely the "intentions," not harvested acres. A plug for Macke's Fast Money just keeps getting easier because the show needs to be checked out if you have not – it's fantastic. Boling made a great point when he asked – why in the world does a farmer want to reveal his true intentions if cumulatively all that perceived supply could push down his own prices
You Manhattanites think us farmers are dummies? They don't call it Texas Hold 'Em by accident.
My point is the opposite of Boling's, however, and that is the "intended" 90+ million acres may be hard to actually deliver, let alone anything more, when those intentions have to be supplied by seed, nitrogen and good weather.
And allow myself to interrupt…myself and say that I'm with Adami on both his Georgetown call and his EMC over Apple (AAPL) call despite being long Apple…myself. Here's hoping only one of those gets defeated ay Bus?
When deciding which frosty beverage to pair with Greg Oden's early foul trouble, consider this last comment from my grain broker.
"I forgot to mention this the other day but beer makers are also paying a lot more in input costs as well. Barley and oats are up significantly this year as well. Those grains don't usually get as much attention but oats especially are sky high right now."
Position in EMC, AAPL, a variety of Ags and beers
Bring it Home Buzz - Todd Harrison - 3:16 PM
Alrightee then, as I ready to chew through my final to do's, the Minx is doing her best Flatliner impersonation. I've been trading long enough to know that we'll likely see the ticks flicker quicker into the bell but try as I may, try as I might, I can't discern a tradable edge.
So, I'm doing a bit less as my gas tank sputters into the long, holiday weekend. This is an important juncture for the tape (aren't they all?) as the notion of a "lower high" bodes well for Boo. Should the bulls spur the herd and take out overhead resistance, there will be some technical affirmation for Hoofy to hang his hat on.
I remain skewed somewhat short, although I'm hedging myself (risk wise and word wise) with "positive gamma." I'm still of the humble view that there is downside risk (particularly if the fundies falter via pre-announcements) but I'm certainly not gonna draw a line in the sand should the bulls (and Stella) get their groove back. That's why we've got discipline (defined risk) and it's the stuff that long careers and capital preservation are made of.
With that, I'm gonna finish my week before grabbing a quick run in Central Park and meeting the team for a night of spirits. We'll be swinging by to say hi to our friends at Wall Strip, challenging our Lindsay to a game of intellectual Twister. It should be fun as we set the stage for a weekend of hardwood hoops!
Have a great respite Minyans and, for those observing, Happy Passover! I'll see YOU on Tuesday.
So do you believe the data or not? - Bennet Sedacca - 11:06 AM
I am not really sure and I am not trading on it, except to continue with the arduous process of 'sell implicit, buy explicit'. In other words, sell Fannie Mae (FNMA), Freddie Mac (FHLMC), FHLB, FFCB and buy Ginnie Mae (GNMA). It is taking a while but we are about half way there.
I still think there is an eventual credit event/crisis out there somewhere and don't intend on having any credit risk in my book at that point.
Bonds, at first, didn't blink on the PMI number which was so far from consensus, no one knows to believe it or not. I guess I think it's a little hot, but could be seasonal. Honestly I am not sure. So I am just watching today and bonds are now selling off as we enter two of the worst months for bonds from a seasonal perspective.
See the chart here of continuous 30 year futes. It's still holding the long term (one year) trend line and coming up on important support.
I think it most likely breaks but I intend to buy that break via low priced GNMA CMO's (long term lockout, or no principal payments for a long time) or Treasury strips. I will then be 'bar-belled' with short term premiums and long term discounts avoiding the expensive 'belly' of the curve.
Complicated? You betcha. But risk averse? Yep, that too.
I can't stress this enough, if you are not being compensated for taking risk, do not take risk. Particularly now.
Closer Look at Nasdaq-100 - Kevin Depew - 9:17 AM
The bullish percent for the Nasdaq-100 is the lone "positive" longer-term context indicator for the market. But the reality is this bullish percent is "corrective" having generated a recent sell signal at 64%, and there is growing evidence the recent move for the NDX off the double bottom lows (1710-1711) is nearing a conclusion.
Take a look at the DeMark signals in place for the NDX on the following charts:
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