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Answers I Really Wanna Know: When Will THE Stock Market Bottom Arrive?


In the thirteen recessions since 1929, the median S&P low has occurred 58% of the way through.

  • Is it safe to assume the current recession "officially" started in the fourth quarter of 2007?

  • The thirteen recessions since 1929 lasted on average ten months?

  • The longest recession ever-The Depression-lasted 44 months?

  • The second longest recessions-1973-1975 and 1981-1982-lasted 16 months each?

  • In the thirteen recessions dating back to 1929, the median S&P bottom occurred 58% of the way through the recession?

  • The average return from the recessions' closing low to the end of the recession was 20.3% while the average return for the year following the recession was 15.9%?

  • Did I thank Mike O'Rourke from BTIG for this fantastic data?

  • If our current conundrum is on par with The Great Depression in terms of duration (44 months) and we apply the median S&P bottom (58%) while assuming it started in the fourth quarter of last year, can we extrapolate that THE bottom will arrive in the first quarter of 2010?

  • What makes you think we've ever seen a recession like this?

  • Do you think FDR knew what a derivative was?

  • Was over 60% of the U.S. population invested in financial assets at the time?

  • Was the world tied together with upwards of $500 trillion in exotic financial instruments?

  • As we're in unchartered waters, shouldn't we preserve our capital, stay out of debt, protect ourselves and save for our children?

  • Which is a different conversation that catching the "hit it to quit it" rallies that will inevitably litter the landscape?

  • Isn't it ironic that after all the pundits declared "a new paradigm" during the daze, the housing boom, the emerging market mania and the commodity craze, we've actually arrived in a new paradigm after the fact?

  • Why should we listen to those who didn't see this coming for advice as to when it will end?

  • With the mainstay averages down 40% year over year, isn't this is the medicine of time and price that long we've spoken of?
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