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Answers I Really Wanna Know: When Will THE Stock Market Bottom Arrive?

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In the thirteen recessions since 1929, the median S&P low has occurred 58% of the way through.

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  • Is it safe to assume the current recession "officially" started in the fourth quarter of 2007?

  • The thirteen recessions since 1929 lasted on average ten months?

  • The longest recession ever-The Depression-lasted 44 months?

  • The second longest recessions-1973-1975 and 1981-1982-lasted 16 months each?

  • In the thirteen recessions dating back to 1929, the median S&P bottom occurred 58% of the way through the recession?

  • The average return from the recessions' closing low to the end of the recession was 20.3% while the average return for the year following the recession was 15.9%?

  • Did I thank Mike O'Rourke from BTIG for this fantastic data?

  • If our current conundrum is on par with The Great Depression in terms of duration (44 months) and we apply the median S&P bottom (58%) while assuming it started in the fourth quarter of last year, can we extrapolate that THE bottom will arrive in the first quarter of 2010?

  • What makes you think we've ever seen a recession like this?

  • Do you think FDR knew what a derivative was?

  • Was over 60% of the U.S. population invested in financial assets at the time?

  • Was the world tied together with upwards of $500 trillion in exotic financial instruments?

  • As we're in unchartered waters, shouldn't we preserve our capital, stay out of debt, protect ourselves and save for our children?

  • Which is a different conversation that catching the "hit it to quit it" rallies that will inevitably litter the landscape?

  • Isn't it ironic that after all the pundits declared "a new paradigm" during the dot.com daze, the housing boom, the emerging market mania and the commodity craze, we've actually arrived in a new paradigm after the fact?

  • Why should we listen to those who didn't see this coming for advice as to when it will end?

  • With the mainstay averages down 40% year over year, isn't this is the medicine of time and price that long we've spoken of?
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No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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