Answers I Really Wanna Know: When Will THE Stock Market Bottom Arrive?
In the thirteen recessions since 1929, the median S&P low has occurred 58% of the way through.
- Is it safe to assume the current recession "officially" started in the fourth quarter of 2007?
- The thirteen recessions since 1929 lasted on average ten months?
- The longest recession ever-The Depression-lasted 44 months?
- The second longest recessions-1973-1975 and 1981-1982-lasted 16 months each?
- In the thirteen recessions dating back to 1929, the median S&P bottom occurred 58% of the way through the recession?
- The average return from the recessions' closing low to the end of the recession was 20.3% while the average return for the year following the recession was 15.9%?
- Did I thank Mike O'Rourke from BTIG for this fantastic data?
- If our current conundrum is on par with The Great Depression in terms of duration (44 months) and we apply the median S&P bottom (58%) while assuming it started in the fourth quarter of last year, can we extrapolate that THE bottom will arrive in the first quarter of 2010?
- What makes you think we've ever seen a recession like this?
- Do you think FDR knew what a derivative was?
- Was over 60% of the U.S. population invested in financial assets at the time?
- Was the world tied together with upwards of $500 trillion in exotic financial instruments?
- As we're in unchartered waters, shouldn't we preserve our capital, stay out of debt, protect ourselves and save for our children?
- Which is a different conversation that catching the "hit it to quit it" rallies that will inevitably litter the landscape?
- Isn't it ironic that after all the pundits declared "a new paradigm" during the dot.com daze, the housing boom, the emerging market mania and the commodity craze, we've actually arrived in a new paradigm after the fact?
- Why should we listen to those who didn't see this coming for advice as to when it will end?
- With the mainstay averages down 40% year over year, isn't this is the medicine of time and price that long we've spoken of?
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at email@example.com.
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