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Two Ways: IEA Predicts Crude Awakening

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Strengthen your portfolio in good times and bad.

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The International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its forecast for crude oil today saying demand will rise in 2010 with much of the push coming from emerging markets like China and India.

According to the Telegraph, the revision comes even after crude oil has suffered its worst weekly drop since January. But the IEA believes demand will rise by 1.4 million barrels to 85.2 million barrels a day, an improvement of 1.7% overall.

Last year crude oil rose to a record high of nearly $150 per barrel. But prices plunged when the economy went into a free-fall, and black gold fell to $36 a barrel. Crude has gained about 30% this year, but is off 18% from its 2009 high of $73.83.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil fell 59 cents to $59.82, breaking below $60 for the first time since May.

From the Bull Pen: Timely mention by Professor Cooper regarding crude oil on today's Buzz:

In my morning report from July 6th (read: Speculation in Time), I showed a chart of crude oil a few days off the high. See chart here.


Click to enlarge


While the ramp to 74 ish has invited calls of manipulation and fingers pointed at rogue traders is any one man or group bigger than the market.

The simple answer is maybe, for a little while. But bear markets and natural law seem to shine a light on dirty little secrets like they did with recent Ponzi schemes.

The low on oil at 33, 33 weeks from low which suggested should be a low in February to be followed by a spike above above 70 on the next rally was related to the idea that 73.50 was 50% of the one year anniversary in late June/July last year.

This coincided with first attempt by the S&P to convert 50% of its bear market range or 910 S&P. The two factors are/have weighed on the market.

However, now oil has pulled back to initial support at 59 which is 50% of the second quarter range.


From the Bear Cave: Bears can keep an eye on retail stocks like Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF). The consumer picture hasn't gotten any better. Those playing the downside can set a buy stop near $24.50-25.

Minyans, it's been a great week serving you. I hope you all have a fun and safe weekend!
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No positions in stocks mentioned.

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