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Random Thoughts: All Eyes On Crude


Oil continues to get tagged like the slow kid in the schoolyard.


Editor's Note: The following was posted in real time on our premium Buzz & Banter. It's being shared here for the benefit of the Minyanville community.

Apologies for the post laggage Minyans as I've been kissing hands and shaking babies--or something like that--in front of tonight's over-subscribed Festivus for Children's Education.

We often say that a dream is only as powerful as those who believe in it. This week--the Emmy on Tuesday and 400 of our closest friends tonight--speaks to the power of community. Again, and not to get all Sally Field on ya, THANK YOU from the bottom of our hearts for the continued support.

As I'm gonna head on down to the event soon--micro-manager who?--I wanted to pop in and drop a few thoughts as we edge our way through these interesting times:

  • The standout action is quite obviously crude (-5.5%), which continues to get tagged like the slow kid in a playground. As you know (always honest), I've had some tertiary tag-ends exposure to this complex through the DXO (cheapie play) but I just initiated a small USO call position as we speak. Nothing crazy, just trying to use price to my advantage.

  • Ditto Research in Motion (RIMM), with a conscious nod that $40 is newfound resistance. I traded around a bad position yesterday (buying, instead of punting, into $35) and flattened out at the end of the day. Again, I now have a small call position as the bad (company specific) news is seemingly behind us.

  • And no, I'm not kicking myself for taking a nice trade in Amazon (AMZN) yesterday, today's 10% pop notwithstanding. I've long ago learned not to look back as profits lie in the path ahead.

  • The udder standout is the dollar, which has a pinkish hue. The redder that gets, the better the odds that asset classes have a spate of reflation. It's no guarantor of a lift, we know, but it's likely a necessary precursor of one.

  • Finally, before I try to finish my salad without dripping balsamic on my white shirt, keep retail on ye radar. This sector is one that I've been bearish on for years but as we discussed November 19th, the market rarely rewards front page news.

  • I'm gonna hop and hobble through the hallowed halls as I get ready to play Mr. Roarke. While I was planning on taking tomorrow off, I'll have no such luck. Instead, I've got packed back-to-back-to-back meetings and will be "in touch with" on the Buzz.

  • Thank you in advance for understanding and know that all these melds are in the vein of making Minyanville better, stronger, faster and truer to our mission of financial understanding. Fare ye well through the dwell and remember that profitability begins within!


Please be advised that the 2008 Holiday Festivus to benefit the Ruby Peck Foundation for Children's Education has officially SOLD OUT as we tagged our magical 300 Minyan mark. If you (or someone you know) would still like to attend, shoot us an e-mail and we'll see what we can do. We strive to take care of our own in these parts and as always, we'll do our best to circle ye faithful.

Positions in RIMM, USO, DXO

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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