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Random Thoughts: All Eyes On Crude


Oil continues to get tagged like the slow kid in the schoolyard.


Editor's Note: The following was posted in real time on our premium Buzz & Banter. It's being shared here for the benefit of the Minyanville community.

Apologies for the post laggage Minyans as I've been kissing hands and shaking babies--or something like that--in front of tonight's over-subscribed Festivus for Children's Education.

We often say that a dream is only as powerful as those who believe in it. This week--the Emmy on Tuesday and 400 of our closest friends tonight--speaks to the power of community. Again, and not to get all Sally Field on ya, THANK YOU from the bottom of our hearts for the continued support.

As I'm gonna head on down to the event soon--micro-manager who?--I wanted to pop in and drop a few thoughts as we edge our way through these interesting times:

  • The standout action is quite obviously crude (-5.5%), which continues to get tagged like the slow kid in a playground. As you know (always honest), I've had some tertiary tag-ends exposure to this complex through the DXO (cheapie play) but I just initiated a small USO call position as we speak. Nothing crazy, just trying to use price to my advantage.

  • Ditto Research in Motion (RIMM), with a conscious nod that $40 is newfound resistance. I traded around a bad position yesterday (buying, instead of punting, into $35) and flattened out at the end of the day. Again, I now have a small call position as the bad (company specific) news is seemingly behind us.

  • And no, I'm not kicking myself for taking a nice trade in Amazon (AMZN) yesterday, today's 10% pop notwithstanding. I've long ago learned not to look back as profits lie in the path ahead.

  • The udder standout is the dollar, which has a pinkish hue. The redder that gets, the better the odds that asset classes have a spate of reflation. It's no guarantor of a lift, we know, but it's likely a necessary precursor of one.

  • Finally, before I try to finish my salad without dripping balsamic on my white shirt, keep retail on ye radar. This sector is one that I've been bearish on for years but as we discussed November 19th, the market rarely rewards front page news.

  • I'm gonna hop and hobble through the hallowed halls as I get ready to play Mr. Roarke. While I was planning on taking tomorrow off, I'll have no such luck. Instead, I've got packed back-to-back-to-back meetings and will be "in touch with" on the Buzz.

  • Thank you in advance for understanding and know that all these melds are in the vein of making Minyanville better, stronger, faster and truer to our mission of financial understanding. Fare ye well through the dwell and remember that profitability begins within!


Please be advised that the 2008 Holiday Festivus to benefit the Ruby Peck Foundation for Children's Education has officially SOLD OUT as we tagged our magical 300 Minyan mark. If you (or someone you know) would still like to attend, shoot us an e-mail and we'll see what we can do. We strive to take care of our own in these parts and as always, we'll do our best to circle ye faithful.

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Positions in RIMM, USO, DXO
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