Randoms: The Revenge of Eddie Mush
You don't say "good luck" to a pitcher in the middle of a no-hitter.
There are certain things you don't do. You don't date one of your friends' exes. You should never be rude to your mother. You don't say "good luck" to a pitcher in the middle of a no-hitter. And you never ever celebrate a trade while it's still open.
That's Rule 1A in Minyanville and old hat ye faithful. We call it the Eddie Mush and it's time tested, tried and true.
I've known Carter for 20 years. We met when we were camp counselors at Na-Sho-Pa and he's been my brother since. If you look up "mighty fine Minyan" in the dictionary, you may find a picture of his wily
The time stamp on the instant message is 10:09:16 when he pinged, "Never underestimate the power of vacation. You have been dead on since T+3."
First thing's first—I'm not pitching a no hitter and T+3 simply made up for a less than snazzy T+1 and T+2. Still, you don't mess with Mother Nature and you certainly don't offer snaps in the midst of a market that has more swings than a Hedonism vacation.
Not now, not ever. Not on my watch.
After the requisite, "DUDE!," "MUSH!," "SIGH!," "GRR!" and "HAVE I TAUGHT YOU NOTHING?" responses, I turned my attention to the tape, covered a slew of intraday exposure (added into the opening pop, as discussed on the Buzz) and tightened the stops on my remaining bets (including my biggest intraday trade in the financials).
10:09:16 was the timestamp. The low tick (thus far) on the S&P was at 10:13. It really is uncanny. Contra-hour, Turnaround Tuesday, Eddie Mush. If I didn't see the consistency of these nonsensical dynamics with my own eyes, I wouldn't believe it either.
Bottom line is that with a green bottom line (which is not what I expected at 8:31 after the unemployment data was released), my risk profile is tighter than a snare drum. I'm not managing to my P&L, I'm simply respecting both sides, particularly as I have a rare out-of-office business meld at 1:30.
And oh yeah, for all ye faithful who attend upcoming Minyanville events—be it Festivus, Minyans in the Mountains or the (under the radar) upcoming 40th birthday hippie-fest—his name is Carter and I would consider it a personal favor if, when you see him, you gave him a spanking (although, truth be told, he might like that).
Some Random Thoughts:
Like a moth to the flame burned by the fire, the rally stopped on a dime at S&P 950. White on rice, eh?
The first days are the hardest days and the first fade was the easy trade.
My first trade on this Freaky Friday? A meaty sized fade (sale) in the financials. The game plan was to catch a good entry point (which we did) and slap on a trailing stop at my cost (check that box also).
I’m not coining money on that trade (yet) but risking zero to be a hero is an advantageous risk-reward any way you slice it.
The dollar. Higher. See it, even it's a 40,000 foot thought.
You wanna see the definition of a negative trendline? Check out a chart in the SOX. Until that is mounted, rallies are made to be sold.
My defined risk in Amazon (AMZN) is in and around $88. Discipline over conviction, always and forever.
Yes, the thought of a false breakout, perhaps to S&P 970, has been percolating in my crowded keppe but we'll jump off that bridge when we get to it.
A lot of bears are making a bet at S&P 950 and if they don't 'come off,' there could be another mad dash (hence my current stylistic approach).
Breathe, please, we’ve almost arrived at our requisite respite.
And watch that att'tude boy, profitability begins within!
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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