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VIDEOWill LVS Earnings Play Trump Card?
Or will investors just fold?
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As discussed yesterday, I’m long Las Vegas Sands (LVS) (and a wee drib of MGM (MGM) which I may have neglected mentioning because, after taking profits on most of my casino basket earlier this week, I left an MGM chip in my pocket. “Hmmm,” I thought ,while reviewing my book.
After pausing to explain to young Chachi that Floyd Mayweather’s “shoulder roll” is simply turning your back in the ring, making Strategy #1 “breaking his ribs with a right cross.” I thought to myself, “I didn’t know MGM made $1.35 chips. Better get rid of that.” Which I did on the morning spike today, with MGM almost back to where I sold the other 98% of the position.
The larger trading thought, as shared with you all, was getting longer LVS and dropping WYNN, with the logic that both companies would find a way to beat but less was expected from LVS. Then WYNN went ahead and announced earnings of $0.21 vs. an expected loss of one penny. That’s not a beat, that’s a boot-stomping.
Will LVS surprise as well? The money here says yes. Will they beat by enough so traders don’t react by yawning and saying things along the lines of “Looks like LVS is going to survive but they’re no Wynn?” It’s now entirely possible. LVS is between 7 and 8% higher than yesterday’s close, drafting 4% behind Wynn. In a fluid situation, one trades with fluidity of thought. I’ve taken 15% of my LVS off the table.
Not “advising” (the ‘Ville’s mission is to help you make your own decisions; not run your portfolio); simply illustrating in near-real time what I’m thinking and how I’m trading a fluid situation:1. Also sold today, 1/4 of my Bank of America (BAC) position. The range previously discussed was $10 - $15. More accurately, since breaking through $10 on big volume in early May, BAC has been trading in range though getting tighter, that range has roughly been “anything with a 10 handle” as an entry point to “over $14” as a time to get out. Today BAC got over 14 on fairly unimpressive volume. Cue Bocelli and Brightman, because it’s clearly Time to Say Goodbye.
2. UBS upgraded Amazon (AMZN) today, bringing it to stock spitting distance from green for me. The logic of the upgrade? Who know’s? “Macke’s long AMZN, it must be decent” works for me.
3. It’s time for UBS to take a field trip to McDonalds (MCD)... “Mmmmmm, Coffee! Don’t be shy over there, Gunther and Fritz. Who wants an egg McMuffin?"
4. Yahoo (YHOO) down sharply and big volume for the second day in a row in response to its cashless deal with Microsoft (MSFT). Shareholders are revolted and rebelling. I’m not mad about the deal, either, but it wasn’t Ms. Bartz who turned down the $33 per share offer. It was Chief Yahoo Jerry Yang who, according to the website, is on the board as a Chief Yahoo Director. I can’t help but notice that Chief Jerry isn’t issuing protesting press releases, objecting to the current deal.
5. By the way, Yang and co-founder David Filo are 40. Isn’t that a little old to put “Chief Yahoo” on your business card. It’s not mine to say but I’ll put it this way, I’m printing business cards soon. I won’t be putting, “Jeff ‘Butt Kickin’ Smart Dude’ Macke” as my name or title.
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