Will LVS Earnings Play Trump Card?

By Jeff Macke Jul 30, 2009 2:17 pm
Or will investors just fold?
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Greetings from New York, where, in all honesty, I’ve spent a good portion of my morning teaching Minyan drone bee Chachi about boxing, watching Youtube videos (for free... a business model I wish more companies would adopt) and wishing Wynn Resorts (WYNN) would have been just a wee bit less strong this morning.

As discussed yesterday, I’m long Las Vegas Sands (LVS) (and a wee drib of MGM (MGM) which I may have neglected mentioning because, after taking profits on most of my casino basket earlier this week, I left an MGM chip in my pocket. “Hmmm,” I thought ,while reviewing my book.

After pausing to explain to young Chachi that Floyd Mayweather’s “shoulder roll” is simply turning your back in the ring, making Strategy #1 “breaking his ribs with a right cross.” I thought to myself, “I didn’t know MGM made $1.35 chips. Better get rid of that.” Which I did on the morning spike today, with MGM almost back to where I sold the other 98% of the position.

The larger trading thought, as shared with you all, was getting longer LVS and dropping WYNN, with the logic that both companies would find a way to beat but less was expected from LVS. Then WYNN went ahead and announced earnings of $0.21 vs. an expected loss of one penny. That’s not a beat, that’s a boot-stomping.

Will LVS surprise as well? The money here says yes. Will they beat by enough so traders don’t react by yawning and saying things along the lines of “Looks like LVS is going to survive but they’re no Wynn?” It’s now entirely possible. LVS is between 7 and 8% higher than yesterday’s close, drafting 4% behind Wynn. In a fluid situation, one trades with fluidity of thought. I’ve taken 15% of my LVS off the table.

Not “advising” (the ‘Ville’s mission is to help you make your own decisions; not run your portfolio); simply illustrating in near-real time what I’m thinking and how I’m trading a fluid situation:

1. Also sold today, 1/4 of my Bank of America (BAC) position. The range previously discussed was $10 - $15. More accurately, since breaking through $10 on big volume in early May, BAC has been trading in range though getting tighter, that range has roughly been “anything with a 10 handle” as an entry point to “over $14” as a time to get out. Today BAC got over 14 on fairly unimpressive volume. Cue Bocelli and Brightman, because it’s clearly Time to Say Goodbye.

2.
UBS upgraded Amazon (AMZN) today, bringing it to stock spitting distance from green for me. The logic of the upgrade? Who know’s? “Macke’s long AMZN, it must be decent” works for me.

3. It’s time for UBS to take a field trip to McDonalds (MCD)... “Mmmmmm, Coffee! Don’t be shy over there, Gunther and Fritz. Who wants an egg McMuffin?"

4. Yahoo
(YHOO) down sharply and big volume for the second day in a row in response to its cashless deal with Microsoft (MSFT). Shareholders are revolted and rebelling. I’m not mad about the deal, either, but it wasn’t Ms. Bartz who turned down the $33 per share offer. It was Chief Yahoo Jerry Yang who, according to the website, is on the board as a Chief Yahoo Director. I can’t help but notice that Chief Jerry isn’t issuing protesting press releases, objecting to the current deal.

5. By the way, Yang and co-founder David Filo are 40. Isn’t that a little old to put “Chief Yahoo” on your business card. It’s not mine to say but I’ll put it this way, I’m printing business cards soon. I won’t be putting, “Jeff ‘Butt Kickin’ Smart Dude’ Macke” as my name or title.
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Positions in MCD, AMZN, LVS, BAC

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(5)
2009-07-30 18:36:56
Did I miss something?
Did you or did you not pen the article, "Don't Gamble On Casino Stocks" which was posted on July13? I read that article with great interest as I was contemplating an investment in LVS. After consideration, I did not buy LVS. A couple of weeks later, I see you mention that you're long LVS. I try to read each article you write and nowhere did I see you explain a change in position from the "Don't Gamble On Casino Stocks" article. Could you please explain what I missed? Thanks.
2009-07-31 12:15:33
If I may be so bold as to respond while you wait for Mr. Macke, time and Macua.
2009-07-31 14:42:29
WYNN,LVS, MGM
BOY DID I GET TORE UP ON THIS DEAL. I SOLD MY WYNN & MGM WHEN YOU GAVE THE WORD AT A LOSE. THEN I WAITED FOR LVS TO POP IN THE AFTER MARKET AND I JUST WATCHED IT SINK LOWER AND LOWER LAST NIGHT. I SURE WISH I WOULD HAVE JUST TAKEN MY PROFITS THAT I HAD ACCRUED IN LVS RATHER THAN BE A PIGGY. I WAS JUST SICK ABOUT IT.
2009-07-31 17:13:48
WYNN,LVS, MGM
Odd that you took a loss on anything save LVS, which you had a gain on until last night. As you may have read today, if you feel sick about it, imagine having made the argument against holding LVS in light of the Wynn report and LVS gains; then not taking your own advice.... well, I'll see your sickness and raise you a desire to vomit on myself.

(PS... this isn't an advice site, and, regarding "giving the word", I started booking gains on Monday. Always take partial profits in markets like this.)

I'm sorry for your losses but was simply explaining what I was doing and thinking. Please don't take the "word" from anyone here. None of us are trying to invest your money. We're trying to teach you to think and put together the pieces.
2009-08-03 08:24:57
LVS
Jeff, do you think LVS will hit 74 before it goes to single digits?
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