Auto Bailout Still Has to Get Past Senate
It all sounds eerily familiar: Old, white guys getting harangued on Capitol Hill as they beg for billions to save their dying industries. The House of Representatives, in its infinite benevolence, offers up a rescue package at the 11th hour. Sure, there are strings attached and it's a far cry from what the old white guys asked for, but hey, this is Washington.
Last night, House Democrats hammered out a $15 billion rescue for the General Motors (GM) and Chrysler, allowing the struggling automakers to draw on emergency loans to avoid imminent collapse. Their fate now rests in the hands of the Senate, where the financial system bailout met stiff resistence just months ago. Act II is playing out just as you'd expect, with Senate Republicans vowing to block the House's bill.
The rationale, again, for handing out billions of dollars in taxpayer money is to ostensibly save the American economy from sort of alternative too terrifying to imagine. As John Dingell, a Democrat from Michigan told Bloomberg, "Without this bridge, we're going to fall into the biggest calamity this country has known since the Great Depression. A terrible disaster looms."
The money is meant to keep the 2 firms alive (apparently Ford (F) isn't sick enough to be bailed out, yet) until restructuring plans can be drawn up and approved by the soon-to-be-appointed "Car Czar," who will oversee an overhaul of the 2 firms.
Taxpayers could receive stock warrants for as much as 20% of the amount of the loan, which in the case of GM means Joe Taxpayer will own almost the entire company. Still, the bill could die in the Senate as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi claims her brethren won't come back to the negotiating table if the Senate passes a materially different bill.
What a mess.
Proponents claim allowing the automakers to go bankrupt is foolish, risking millions of American jobs while they've provided a workable alternative.
Opponents to the bailout on the other hand, contend the rescue simply delays an inevitable bankruptcy filing and complete restructuring.
One contentious issue (of many) is whether or not consumers would buy cars from a bankrupt automaker. As I wrote last month, if American Airlines (AMR) and United (UAUA) could fly planes through Chapter 11, Detroit can certainly make cars during bankruptcy.
And a marked difference between the environment in which this bailout is being debated versus the one for the financial system, is the election. Now that representatives know their fate and no longer have to pander for votes, they're much more likely to play political hardball.
This doesn't bode well for Detroit.
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Also, the financial bailout sailed through the Senate but got hung up in the House.
I think the difference is that the financial houses gave orders of magnitude more in campaign donations than the Big 3 and UAW combined.
They'll get our money AND file bankruptcy so they can rob or default on their pension obligations the way the airlines did.
We'll also further debase the Fifth Amendment of the Constitution.
This all adds up to societal acrimony pushing back from the backbone of the the economy - the middle class.
Property rights dying, punitive taxation by fiat to prop up a fiat currency, punishing the responsible and rewarding failures...hmmmm...not a recipe for wine and roses. More like a recipe for Kondratiev Winter of depression and war.
Scary.
They are thinkers, they are. Here is how it will go:
Approve bill. Provision for 90 days to "recover" or they "have" to declare bankruptcy. The car czar can play the fall guy so the UAW and voters can't blame local politicians for declaring them bankrupt and subsequent defaults on the pension plans. This is why Ford is not joining the party; they will be the only non-bankrupt American automaker.
GM and Chrylser merge under bankruptcy status. Thousands of jobs lost and dealerships closed but parts makers can survive. Obama administration agrees to buy all fleet vehicles from "GCM".
Good point about the House v senate, I must have reversed it. As for the financial bailout, even though it was definitely larger and less popular, I think the public was sufficiently terrified at the time that passing the bill was seen as the responsible thing to do.
Whereas this time, even though most people agree the auto makers have done a terrible job managing their business, they'd feel better about bailout out millions of blue collar workers than the ole Wall Street Fat cats. So it makes sense that politicians can take a stand here without much backlash.
But I would agree that Wall Street's lobby, as we are now learning very clearly, is a lot stronger than Detroit's!
Andrew
#1 Retired (meaning AARP) $124M 55%/45% D/R
#2 Lawyers $120M 78%/22%
...
#4 Securities / Invest $59M 65%/35%
...
#9 Insurance $28M 51%/49%
#10 Misc Finance $25M 54%/46%
...
#13 Commercial Banks $21M 52%/48%
...
#34 Automotive $9M 35%/65%
Not only are they outgunned 133 to 9, they gave their money to the losing party. But it's the Republican Senators who are blocking the passage of the bill. Why? Because hurting the unions (UAW) is more important to them than helping not-so-big buck contributors.
Minyan Vince
Now look... the markets around the world are collapsing thanks to politicians in the US failing to agree on what to do with these companies.
Yet again the problems come from the US.
This is what happens when you allow big corporations to dictate what the politicians do.
It isn't about the people any more, just how much money companies can bribe, I mean, support political parties with,
Let's get a little perspective on this proposed bailout.
Ford: Market Cap 6.66B, EPS -5.214, Book Value -0.833
GM: Market Cap 2.40B, EPS -38.74, Book Value -98.18
Chrysler: Values unknown but given Daimler Benz pretty much paid Cerberus to take this company off their hands we can guess they aren't pretty.
Would any sane person give these companies a 'loan' for 15B in return for " stock warrants for as much as 20% of the amount of the loan"?
These companies (and their unions) can repeat 'bridge loan' as many times as they like but it won't change the fact that this proposed bailout is the equivalent of giving money to a homeless alcoholic and expecting that it will 'fix' anything...let alone have any chance that the money will be repaid.
If you really want to help these guys take them to a church and get them a cup of coffee, a warm meal and...
into a 12 step program!

















