Buzz Bits: Dow, Nasdaq End Down
Your daily Buzz & Banter highlights...
Dude Looks Like a Lady - Todd Harrison - 3:57 PM
I hear ya--Grandma Goldman is showing her age and, as the most important stock in the universe, she's bummin' out her friends at Del Boca Vista. I've been trading her from the short side (using $214 as a stop) and, while I'm gonna hold on to my Todd-lot position, let's roll the stop down to (slightly above) GS $207.50, which is the 200-day moving average.
Widening the lens, the macro dynamic is clearly the more important focus. As I was just discussing with my friends at TD-Ameritrade (with whom Minyanville has a relationship), there are several themes that bear watching. They are, and in no particular order:
- Credibility and, ergo, investor psychology.
- The dollar as "the" valve (asset class deflation vs. dollar devaluation)
- Globalization, insofar as "how long will foreign holders of dollar-denominated assets put up with the decaying greenback?"
- Volatility. Be proactive in your risk reduction when you can (rather than when you must).
- The elasticity of debt and structural implications of credit.
- The necessity of removing all things chocolate from my home, lest I eat them in an Ambien-induced sleep eating mission.
OK, I added that last one simply for a smile (a little levity goes a long way) but you get the big picture---it is, by definition, made up of a million smaller pictures. All of these dynamics are interwoven which is precisely why the market machination is multi-linear. Our hope is that by putting these themes on ye radar, you'll be better prepared for when they manifest.
That's not bearish or bullish. It's just preparedness.
Anyhow, I'm ready to flip lids and ready for a roll in ze hay. I hope this finds you well and remember, Minyans, circle 12/7 for the Minyanville "Circle of Trust" Holiday Festivus to Benefit Children's Education in Manhattan. We're getting the band back together and it's gonna be one heckuva humdinga!
May peace be with you.
Position in GS.
Dollar Bears - Sally Limantour - 10:51 AM
The dollar news is bearish, as Prof. Lewis pointed out, and we are approaching the critical area of the Sept 1992 lows of 78.33. As I wrote on Tuesday, the dollar bears are rampant and even Aunt Matilda wants to own the Euros. She did not want them back in 2000 when the Euro was 85 cents. It is now over $1.40 and everyone wants in. Watch these levels as well as the long bond.
Remember that back in September of 1992, when it made that all time low close of 78.33, this was lower than the 1978 low. Back 15 years ago, it was a time of panic about the dollar. And yet the greenback recovered and in the next few years went on to start a new bull market. Not saying this will happen, but just a heads up.
Good Times Ahead for Brocade? - Ryan Krueger - 10:45 AM
Citigroup was out this week, upgrading Brocade (BRCD), and adding it to its Global Conviction list on the heels of its well-attended technology conference in New York. I'd also note Brocade is hosting an analyst day next Thursday in Boston.
Brocade has struggled this year, losing market share to Cisco (CSCO), but may be set up for some favorable comps soon as there appears to be pent up demand for the company's new "Neptune" product, where it may be able to take market share back.
I am not involved in the name yet, and the competition is ferocious, but I'll be doing work on it again and wanted to pass this along. And my hunch is that Brocade's analyst day isn't likely to be a disappointment. If this does nothing more than help take some local Minyans' minds off Gagne next week, speaking of thin margins for error, then that's what I'm here for.
Just tradin' em... - Fil Zucchi - 10:30 AM
- I had not done it in a while, but I am using this morning downgrade of Akamai (AKAM) to "sell" by Kaufman Bros. on competition and pricing pressures concerns to trade the name aggressively from the long side. Right, wrong, or indifferent.
- On the flip side, I am shedding the outer fringes of my gold positions - purely as an attempt to buy them back cheaper and larger.
- Do you see Citrix Systems (CTXS) attempting to break to new highs?
- Am I being a pig with CGV Veritas (CGV)? (Hint: It's not no, or maybe.)
Positions in CGV, CTXS, AKAM, gold equities.
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