Tiger Woods, Market Catalyst

After making a rare public appearance at the January inaugural celebrations, Tiger Woods is back on the links after 8 months of rehab after knee surgery. And he's being treated like returning royalty.

So far, it's inspired a million-dollar Nike (NKE) TV advertisement and a large print ad from Gatorade (PEP) that read “Welcome Back, Tiger.” The sports drink is even relaunching their Tiger Focus drink. Is Tiger the one man who can singlehandedly prop up the economy?

Well, consider this: Last week, Woods played at the WGC Accenture Match Play Championship, but lost in the WGC’s second round. Days later, the Dow dropped below 7000 for the first time in over a decade. Coincidence?

Economists didn’t cite knee rehab as a reason for the recession, but Woods’ absence was certainly felt.

Before he announced his return to the Match Play Championship, ticket sales for the tournament were reportedly down $400,000 from last year. Meanwhile, CBS (VIA) reported that ratings for last summer’s AT&T National, the Woods-hosted event that benefits the Tiger Woods Foundation, were down 48%; ABC’s British Open ratings dropped almost 15%.

According to Nielsen, total viewership for the 8 golf tournaments broadcasted on network television during Woods’ absence dropped 47%. For a billion-dollar athlete whose endorsements also include Tag Heuer, EA, Gillette, and Accenture, the return couldn’t have come at a better time.

Following Nike and Gatorade’s lead, LVMH-owned Tag Heuer has launched a contest in which fans can win a chance to play golf with Woods. But the world is a different place since Woods’ last pre-rehab tournament in June. Since then, long-time endorser General Motors (GM) has dropped him. Considering roughly 40% of the PGA Tour’s title sponsors come courtesy of either the auto or finance industries, Woods and his $100 million Nike contract are now poised to play the hero.

When Woods first launched his endorsement career, 2 other athletes eclipsed him in global prowess: Michael Jordan and F1 driver, Michael Schumacher. Both athletes have since retired. Barring another Jordan comeback, that leaves Woods the lone icon capable of drawing this many million-dollar deals while generating genuine market activity.

But the phenomenon of Woods's return isn’t isolated to the sports world. Blogger Paul Kedrosky recently posted a chart which illustrates how Woods' “successive wins throughout the course of 2009 will improve consumer confidence and provide an overall return of a bullish sentiment in the market.”


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According to this forecast, the country should emerge from the recession by October, 2009 after Tiger wins September’s Tour Championship in Atlanta. Not exactly scientific, but golfers and non-golfers alike are still banking on the return of this generation’s most dominant athlete.