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No Worms In This Apple


New technology promises bright future.

At Goldman's conference, Apple (AAPL) confirmed its iPhone sales target. The iPhone issues seemed to grow on their own and I think people were missing an important issue, which is that the sales of iPhones should ramp more over the coming year as each month that goes by will result in more current cell phone subs coming off their existing contracts from competing vendors.

The big initial push for the iPhone was due to the early adopter set. However, only so many crazed AAPL fans were going to pay the steep price at first. Most rational buyers will wait for contract expiry to switch and that is the catalyst that I feel should be obvious. AAPL should capture a high market leading share of those "off contract" subs wanting to switch to a newer, more robust multi-function device.

Also, while the iPhone device is important, the "platform" of the iPhone may actually be more important. By platform I mean the whole touchscreen technology platform that AAPL will continue to launch. After all the iPhone is really the iPhone and the iPod Touch.

In time this iTouch technology should be implemented into laptops and then desktop computers as well as a host of new mobile devices over the coming years. So really AAPL could sell 8 or 10 or 12 million of the current iPhone -- but what should ultimately drive value is the ability to proliferate its "iPhone Platform" into a multitude of products in the future. From my perch I see AAPL doing so and doing so quite exceptionally. And I see an iTouch notebook and or desktop as a potentially killer device.
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Position in AAPL

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