Random Thoughts: Waiting to Exhale
By Todd Harrison Feb 09, 2009 11:45 am
Traders anxiously watch for news on economic stimulus.
- Fire, Water, Vermin, Darkness... man, the world is getting Biblical on us!
- Consistent with "trading around" my upside exposure, I made further sales in Bank America (BAC) into the opening jig. 80% in three sessions is, well, 80% in three sessions and I'm down to a small position in this particular vehicle.
- When the going gets tough, the tough lash out. Have more empathy than acrimony and be a part of the solution rather than part of the problem. If society is simply the sum of it's parts, every ounce of energy helps.
- Somebody call Jay-Z and alert him that the nice, round bottom in Research in Motion (RIMM) remains in tact.
- As referenced this morning, the trade into the stimuli will likely be viewed (with the benefit of hindsight) as the easy trade. There is risk of "buying the rumor, selling the fumes" if there aren't sweeping, DNA-altering initiatives in the twin peaks.
- As constructive as I have been for a trade, I'm making more sales than buys (into strength) with one eye on Turnaround Tuesday. The underlying themes regardless of directional bias? Risk management over reward chasing and opportunities are made up easier than losses.
- In terms of seeing both sides, this summary of the Barron's interview with Ray Dalio is a worthy read.
- As Professor Bill Fleckenstein said on Bloomberg Television, the big picture easy short-side trade is over. Funny thing is, while I haven't spoken to Bill in recent weeks, we seem to have a similar stance at present. We're both long select situations, have no shorts and expect a resumption of the bear market decline a few months out.
- That, of course, can change on a dime (for both of us) but real-time and real honest has always been mainstay vibes for us both. Along those lines, I'll offer that I'm more bullish than long in here, which is fine, as I'm hitting for average rather than power.
- The best thing about working with your best friend is that you can "side bar on the important stuff" whenever the need arises. This morning, we sat and discussed the journey we together share and the ever-elusive and oh-so-important balance in life. Thanks Fish, for more things than I can fit into a column.
- NYC Area Minyans please note that I'll be speaking at the Trader's Expo on February 23rd from 12:00-1:30 PM. The panel, hosted by Dylan Ratigan, will also include Dennis Gartman, Vince Farrell, Eric Bolling and Jon Najarian.
- Apple (AAPL) fans would be wise to remember that $115 is a resistance level we've long eyed in the 'Ville. Doesn't mean we get there--or it stops there--but as technical analysis is a better context than catalyst, it's worth tossing on the radar.
- With the looming "monster move" on the horizon, one might be inclined to make a bet and take a shot. As such, this would be as good a time as any to remind ye faithful that the ability not to trade is often as valuable as trading ability.
- When in doubt, wait it out or, at the very least, trade "in between." This market is a lot of things but "full of second chances" isn't one of 'em.
- There will most certainly be a Wall Street: Next Generation but it won't look like anything we're accustomed to. We spoke of this years ago in State of the Art and revisited it more recently in Will The Banking Industry Survive?
- The bottom line is the leaders coming out of a crisis are never the same as the leaders that enter it. That's bad news for some but will offer fantastic opportunities for others. Where you stand is a function of where you sit but either way, you know it won't come easy.
- Keep your head up Minyans, it could be worse--you could get Rick Rolled!
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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