Hello from New York, where today kicks off earnings season when Alcoa (AA) issues its traditional quarterly loss. I couldn’t be more excited if it was the first day of college football season (when Notre Dame is always a 2-touchdown favorite over a team they’ll be lucky to beat by a field goal).

Two Fridays ago, I was (correctly) lambasted by a reader for misquoting Casey Stengel via author Jimmy Breslin. I chose the title of Breslin’s book -- Can’t Anybody Here Play This Game? -- rather than what Stengel actually said. It was a no-win situation, so I decided to take one for the team. You’re going to lose 'em some of the time. When you do, lose ‘em right.

Alcoa brings to mind watching a youngish Barry Bonds at Candlestick when they’d just added bleachers in left field. This was pre-steroid use, and left field wasn’t Barry’s House, but rather his rec room. The entire stadium was his.

I'd sit out there with my buddy, Frank, and watch young Barry -- who I still consider the best pure player of all time -- will the Giants to victory using nothing but his baseball IQ (he never, ever, had an arm, but no one got a double by hitting into Barry’s rec room). The summers of 1993 and 1994 were the coldest winters I’d ever endured -- but it was worth every goose pimple. It's not everyday you see the kind of genius Alcoa pours into all its earnings reports; you see it just once a quarter -- from Alcoa.

While we’re on the topic, by 2001, all of San Francisco knew Barry was juicing. We even knew why. We also knew the Internet was a bubble, but there were days you could have a 10% up day in your portfolio then watch Cyber Bonds hit most any pitch thrown his way with bat speed never to be seen again. It was a filthy, more or less appalling summer, but you couldn’t miss it.

Returning to Alcoa, they'll miss the estimate by a mile, one way or another. Their explanation will make little to no sense and give investors no reason to buy the stock. In fact, my money's on them saying: “While we managed to beat published estimates by over 50%, we expect business to decline meaningfully in the second half, as Chinese inventory growth ceases."

If you'd been in this game for 100 years, Alcoa would still show you ways to lose that you never knew existed. You want to play that stock into earnings? Knock yourself out. My counter offer is that you email me at Minyanville and guess heads or tails. I’ll then flip my magic coin and tell you whether you won or lost.