Cart (0)
VIDEOAlcoa Looks Set to Miss Estimates By a Mile
Company will show you ways to lose you never knew existed.
 |
|
Two Fridays ago, I was (correctly) lambasted by a reader for misquoting Casey Stengel via author Jimmy Breslin. I chose the title of Breslin’s book -- Can’t Anybody Here Play This Game? -- rather than what Stengel actually said. It was a no-win situation, so I decided to take one for the team. You’re going to lose 'em some of the time. When you do, lose ‘em right.Alcoa brings to mind watching a youngish Barry Bonds at Candlestick when they’d just added bleachers in left field. This was pre-steroid use, and left field wasn’t Barry’s House, but rather his rec room. The entire stadium was his.
I'd sit out there with my buddy, Frank, and watch young Barry -- who I still consider the best pure player of all time -- will the Giants to victory using nothing but his baseball IQ (he never, ever, had an arm, but no one got a double by hitting into Barry’s rec room). The summers of 1993 and 1994 were the coldest winters I’d ever endured -- but it was worth every goose pimple. It's not everyday you see the kind of genius Alcoa pours into all its earnings reports; you see it just once a quarter -- from Alcoa.
While we’re on the topic, by 2001, all of San Francisco knew Barry was juicing. We even knew why. We also knew the Internet was a bubble, but there were days you could have a 10% up day in your portfolio then watch Cyber Bonds hit most any pitch thrown his way with bat speed never to be seen again. It was a filthy, more or less appalling summer, but you couldn’t miss it.
Returning to Alcoa, they'll miss the estimate by a mile, one way or another. Their explanation will make little to no sense and give investors no reason to buy the stock. In fact, my money's on them saying: “While we managed to beat published estimates by over 50%, we expect business to decline meaningfully in the second half, as Chinese inventory growth ceases."If you'd been in this game for 100 years, Alcoa would still show you ways to lose that you never knew existed. You want to play that stock into earnings? Knock yourself out. My counter offer is that you email me at Minyanville and guess heads or tails. I’ll then flip my magic coin and tell you whether you won or lost.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.
Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
