Buzz Bits: Dow, Nasdaq Slip
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Nowhere to run, baby, nowhere to hide... - Todd Harrison - 3:33 PM
I just pinged my buddy who's been white hot (and, until late last week, spot on) in Baidu (BIDU) asking if his thesis has shifted. "Nope," he responded, "they're finally coming after the momo names such as Research in Motion (RIMM), which is off 25% since November 7th, along with the commodities, which were until recently sniffing all-time highs."
Uh, thanks Scoop... Volker resigns!
I'm joking, naturally--he is, after all, my friend--but action is obvious with the benefit of hindsight. My chief beef with the "correction," as it stood last week, was that high beta had yet to correct. That's changed in a hurry as no stone is being left unturned. From beta to base metals to ball bearings, we've seen some serious slippage.
The natural question is begged, "what now?" When we scribed (and revisited) our ten 2007 themes, we spoke of a few dynamics that have thus far proved true from dollar debasement to the leadership shift (big cap vs. small) to the elasticity of debt to the "haves vs. have nots" to commodity consolidation to rate reversal to real estate troubles to the return of volatility. It's that last point that remains the most pressing, particularly with the S&P a scant 2% higher for the year.
My sense, for what it's worth and so it's said, is that we've got more room to the downside. Not in a straight line, mind you---a Turnaround Tuesday rally would seem to make a lot of sense, much as it did last week---but in the context of a stronger dollar, which I sense will see a counter-trend bounce.
I have no interest in being hero, particularly with the potential for forced selling to enter the market at the end of the day. But I might nibble on some fliers if they get smushed into the close---including BIDU near $300--for a pure trade and a quick flip. Not for the weak of knees, mind you, but hey, I'm always honest.
As always, I hope this finds you well.
Apple, Where's the Bounce? - Sean Udall - 2:18 PM
I think the 50 day MA has at least a snowball's chance of holding by days end. Stop just below $154 may hold on multi-day basis and the stock currently looks to be whipped around by levered traders at the moment.
Fundie catalysts are waiting in the wings as Apple (AAPL) could have a glorious holiday season and iPhone sales in Europe could be eye popping.
I scalped a couple points earlier today and am selfishly hoping for an entry in the $140's again as I feel that would offer a $40 up vs. $10 down type opportunity.
Meanwhile, VMWare (VMW) tempted me with an $85 print but I held firm and am staying patient for a long side entry. Though I'm still willing to accumulate a bit more EMC (EMC) at current levels.
Position in EMC.
Between the Ticks - Jeffrey Cooper - 10:57 AM
- Apple (AAPL) on an undercut of its 50 dma and 3 days straight down looks interesting, as does VMWare (VMW) on an undercut of its 50 dma showing some relative strength this morning.
- Put on your gas masks, Minyans... the much beloved fertilizer group which the momo boyz loved to roll around in became a source of funds today with CF Industries Holdings (CF), for example, making a beeline to its 20 dma. Ditto Mosaic (MOS), which shorts will likely look to cover on the first tag of its 20 dma here.
- Keeping an eye on Crocs (CROX), 50% down from high which was upgraded today.
- If a recession is behind the horizon, then heads up on gold and oil. Noteworthy is the breakaway gap to the downside BELOW its 50 dma in gold leader Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM).
Hi-Tech in High Cotton - Ryan Krueger - 10:27 AM
Watching stocks whose numbers are quietly raised during days where the market 'noise' is deafening has been a fairly good page from my firm's playbook in the past. I'd note that Citigroup (C) just significantly raised its estimates and price target on Monsanto (MON).
While the attention is on the gutting of the Nasdaq, I openly wonder if MON isn't among the most significant "technology" stocks and one that doesn't appear in technology funds. Its customers produce my kind of software which is causing riots to buy more, not committees to cut back.
Position in MON.
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