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OMG, That's Like TMI!

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Traders carefully watching key technical levels.

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With so much information hitting the overnight wires, it's easy to feel like a moth in a light bulb factory! Rather than flutter amok and test our luck, we're gonna take a step back and a deep breath as we chew through the dew.

  • Itchy Owie Ambac (ABK)! As Bennet mused, we're gonna find out real fast how interwoven our financial fabric really is. The tape acted fabu in the face of that news but somebody has the other side of that trade on. Contagion vs. containment. It's really that simple.

  • One Paw Paper Hanger? It's never a smart idea to catch a falling knife but after my initial nibble in Gannett (GCI) yesterday, I added to my January 30 calls (risking a buck and change). I'm not going nuts in the absence of a catalyst but I'm patiently positioning as per yesterday's vibe.

  • Let's get technical, technical. As it stands, the DJIA, TRAN, NDX and S&P remain below their respective levels of lore. Perhaps this is the respite before the rush but I would be entirely more comfortable with that if the VXO wasn't a redheaded 20.

  • Parliament? Big Ben! Attention will soon shift to the FOMC meeting on April 30th. Currently, there's a 68% chance of a 25 bip snip and a 25% shot at "no change." We've long offered that the Fed has only so many bullets in the gun with the last one pointed inward. It'll be interesting to see how the street reacts to a less aggressive Ben.

  • Monday, after writing about China and the likelihood of an Olympic sprint higher, I walked out to Minyanville editor Terry Woo and said "When China jumps higher and I'm not there, remind me I had my chance." Yesterday, following Shanghai's 4% jump, I turned to Terry and said, "I know, I know…" This morning, following another 9.3% worth of gains, It doesn't seem as funny.

  • The Wall Street Journal is reporting that there is talk of creating a US-based alternative to LIBOR as only three U.S banks contribute to the LIBOR rate setting and some feel that the U.S shouldn't be penalized by the troubles of European Financial institutions. Isn't it ironic, don't you think? Many European bank troubles began as a function of the U.S mortgage contagion.

  • The comptroller of the currency, John Dugan, said that we're gonna see a wave of bank failures. As we've discussed on Minyanville-25% of the financial universe disappeared during the 1989-1991 recession. The tally thus far is a mere 7%. We're not about negative energy in the 'Ville but taking medicine-rather than being injected with artificial drugs-means that Mr. Dugan will likely be correct in his assessment.

  • Societal acrimony? What societal acrimony?

  • I don't golf (well) but if I did, I would most certainly play Baltusrol for a most worthy cause!

  • I don't have an edge (or position) in Apple (AAPL) but everyone I spoke with into the report expected conservative guidance. Steve Jobs likes to "sand bag" estimates and beat the Street. If this was, in fact, a sandbag quarter, business is rocking to the core. Keep in mind that the stock is up 40% since March, for purposes of perspective.

  • Wasn't it Jeff Saut who once said that the next world war would be fought over water rather than oil?

  • Remember that (bullish) reverse dandruff pattern in the Trannies we've been eyeing? Pull back the chart and look at a multiyear pattern. It could be flaking the udder way.

  • Minyanville is proud and excited to welcome C Warren Moses, CEO of The Children's Aid Society, as our newest professor. "Pete" will be writing "The Business of Giving" column, which will explore philanthropy through various lenses. Giving back is at the core of the Minyanville community and we're thrilled to be extending our reach into this arena.


R.P.

Position in GCI
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