Two Ways: Is Apple Losing Its Juice?

By Terry Woo Feb 19, 2009 8:30 am
Strengthen your portfolio in good times and bad.
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Apple Sales Slow

Sales of Apple (AAPL) computers in the US dropped 6% in January from a year ago. According to the Wall Street Journal, it marks the first such decline in 3 years, a sign that the company’s premium pricing may be hurting its bottom line as consumers cut back spending.

In dollar terms, market research firm NPD Group estimates the value of Apple sales through US retail channels dropped 11%, and that the company's market share declined 16.4% -- to 13.7% -- from a year ago.

From the Bull Pen: Despite the news of the decline, bulls can continue to look to Apple in the near term. A sell stop on an upside try can be set below $90. IBM (IBM) is also another technology play to consider. A tight sell stop can also be set below $90.

From the Bear Cave: Tech bears can consider Dell (DELL). A rally to $10 may serve for a better downside entry. If and when.

Quick Check Around the World

Asian trading closed with the Hang Seng 0.06%, Nikkei 0.31%, Sensex 0.30%, Taiwan 0.68% and Shanghai 0.78%.

Glancing towards Europe, we see the CAC 0.09%, DAX 0.63%, FTSE 0.11%

As of 8:05 AM EST, S&P Futures are trading +12 to 791, and Nasdaq futures are +12 to 1192.

A Look At Commodities

Crude oil is trading +1.17 to 38.58. Gold is +2.30 to 980.50. Silver is -0.75 to 14.215, and copper +4.30 to 147.90.

The dollar index is -1.0350 to 87.2950.

On the Radar

Economics

08:30 Producer Price Index (MoM & YoY) (0.2% & -2.6%)
08:30 Initial Jobless Claims 610k
08:30 Continuing Claims
10:00 Philadelphia Fed -25.00
10:00 Leading Indicators 0.1%

Click here for the full trading radar.

Thirsty Thursday! Good luck and see you at happy hour!
 

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No positions in stocks mentioned.

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(6)
2009-02-19 10:47:49
Two Ways: Is Apple Losing Its Juice?
Terry,

Are you smoking crack?
Is your article based on any facts?
Because it was published in the WSJ means nothing, it's based on a report from the NPD group.
Did you Google them and their prior predictions for accuracy?

Here's one from December...
Mac retail sales in the U.S. last month fell 1% from a year ago, even as sales of Windows PCs climbed 7%, market research company NPD Group Inc. reported today.

Here's what Apple reported:
Apple sold 2,524,000 Macintosh® computers during the quarter, representing nine percent unit growth over the year-ago quarter.

My guess is that they're not always accurate, especially since they stand outside stores and ask people what they are thinking instead of looking at sales numbers of parts being sold to Apple, like an analyst might do. They were actually 800% wrong last quarter.
I bet if I wanted to I could prove that they're mostly wrong every quarter. because their investigative technique is based on laziness and supposition.

Perhaps some due diligence on your part would keep you from looking like someone who doesn't actually know anything about what they're copying and pasting about.
2009-02-19 12:22:06
Do Not Bet Against Apple
Great post. However, Apple is the most innovative, admired and cutting edge tech company out there. You want to get kids excited? Take them to an Apple store. To learn more go to www.newyorkshockexchange.com
2009-02-19 13:46:42
Two Ways: Is Apple Losing Its Juice?
Thanks for the comments George Michael. The story is in the WSJ. That part is a paraphrase to make you aware of the story. not copying and pasting.

The purpose of this article is to get you considering a play and hopefully I can help generate ideas for you. It's not advice. It's not a recommendation. Just trying to help fellow Minyans and the decision is ultimately yours.

But if anything, Apple is in the bull pen for a reason. Professor Sean Udall does a much better job at explaining it on today's Buzz and Banter (12:59 PM post for you Minyans). Thanks again. And No.. not on crack.
2009-02-19 14:51:23
Two Ways: Is Apple Losing Its Juice?
Firstly, Why address me as George Michael?
Is that an example of your ability to paraphrase incorrectly or some sort of put down because he's a outted homosexual.
Either way, WTF?
Very uncool.
Question, why quote from any source that has been wrong more than they have been right?
Better yet, why not actually research your repost before reposting it.
Also, why send me over to some pay per view part of your website as an answer to your mindless reposting?
No valid points to make of your own?
Completely lame.
2009-02-19 23:35:49
Drop of 6%
Yes, I know the consumer is bleeding all over the floor. It's not pretty. It's not hard to figure Apple computer sales would be down compared to last January. The question is, are they down more or less than the other computer makers? If they are down less, then we can't make the conclusion that their premium pricing in the reason! If down more, then maybe we can make that statement. If they are down less, then we can actually state that Apple is doing far better and it would be a great story that they can maintain margins and still fair better than their competitors.

When we talk market share numbers, watch out for the new intrusion of very low margin netbooks . Far better to judge Apple would be revenue share vs. market share as these cheap computer are a new entry stealing some share but not much revenue.

I don't expect anyone's numbers to be pretty this quarter, and Apple's will also be very bad. The one thing Apple investors are awaiting is the release of new Mac mini and iMac deskops. At this point, sales will get a boost, but not before.
2009-11-25 00:20:15
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