Random Thoughts: Mama Mia!
The weekend couldn't come any sooner.
Editor's Note: The following was posted in real time on our premium Buzz & Banter. It's being shared here for the benefit of the Minyanville community. See also Chicken Little Skinned?, Two Wildcards to Watch, Snapper Steps Up and Lucidity NOW!
Answers I Really Wanna Know... - 1:23 pm
- With Michigan "up for grabs" into the election, should we expect to see a "caretaker" package of General Motors (GM) and Ford (F) that keeps them stuck in Chapter 10?
- Where do you draw that line of moral hazard? The homies? The airlines? The Raiders?
- In terms of seismic readjustments that would shock the system, am I missing anything other than a severe dollar debasement and "Operation CDS Clean Sweep?"
- Does another 50 bip coordinated global rate cut warrant consideration?
- What's the world time record for the consumption of two slices of pepperoni pizza?
- Am I paranoid or were people on the street eyeing my watch as I jumped downstairs for a pack of gum?
- Why can't I shake the notion that the path of maximum pain is the aforementioned dollar debasement that would effectively punish those (savers) that did the right thing by preserving capital?
- Has "The Crisis of the Real" officially arrived?
- Does anyone else remember the days of VXO 10ish that slithered sideways for years on end?
- Does anyone else wanna see the FBI investigation chew all the way up the food chain?
- While "we need to go through this to get through this," it doesn't feel healthy?
- Where is societal acrimony on a scale of 1-10?
- Where does Shanghai start to pique interest?
- I know, seriously---SHANGHAI?!?!?--but isn't this the mirror image of the manic scrimmage?
- While pre-announcements can't be considered a shocker, we should prolly watch Viacom (VIA) (-16%) through the lens of "the reaction to news is more important than news itself?"
- Are you taking the time to be grateful for what you have rather than bumming about what you've lost?
Clean-up on Aisle Five! - 2:14 pm
In what can only be construed as doing our part to put in a trading low, I just spent the last ten minutes on Fresh Direct ordering more canned goods and bottled water.
Yes, I'm already stocked but I wanted another month of supplies, just in case. Yes, I'm kidding. Well, sorta...
Some top-line vibage as we slip into contra-hour:
- There's no putting lipstick on this pig--structural forced selling (hedge funds) begets psychological forced selling (Main Street)--but this too shall pass. I'm not being glib, I truly believe that to go through this to get through this.
- My biggest concern? Societal acrimony and social unrest. Temper tantrums are percolating all over the world and we're still in the "migration" portion of that continuum.
- The opposite of love isn't hate--it's apathy--but parents will always care about the well being of their children. That's why we built Minyanland, to teach future generations earning, spending, saving and giving. I know you have bigger fish to fry but it's never too early to teach tomorrow's leaders the basic building blocks.
- No, it wouldn't shock me if they "shut the world" on Monday. I will offer, however, that they better shock the monkey during the respite to avoid global panic when it reopens. The ad-hoc reactive efforts aren't helpful. Quite the contrary.
- Look at Apple (AAPL) go.
- Take this with a grain of salt and a shake of pepper but nobody--not one person I speak with--wants to own 'em into the close. Well, I do, and I know thy self. I mean "other people," for what it's worth.
- Never lose your sense of humor Francis. They can melt our markets, they can devalue our dollar but they'll never take Our Freeeeeeedom!
Mama Mia!?! - 2:59 pm
- Mother? NOT Mother!
- Either way, it sure looks like I picked the wrong week to take the corks off my fork.
- Wow, look at what they're doing to gold (-$75). I guess we can toss "commodities are a safe haven" into the debunked myth camp.
- As I wrote this morning, I wanted to wait for some slippage to add the yellow metal to my portfolio. Right, wrong or indifferent, I'm gonna wait a bit longer.
- Note the homies as they giggle green. Why? They were the first industry to fail.
- I used to be the most bearish guy in the room. Now, it seems that I'm the most bullish guy in the room. And you know what? It kinda turns me on (think Karen Hill).
- That's not to say I think the worst has passed---this will take years, and it'll suck--but I like taking the other side of emotional extremes for a trade.
- Tension is thick and social mood is dark. As per Minyan Peter's post, take the time to Do Something Joel (a random act of kindness) this weekend. You never know how far your pebble will ripple in the pond.
- Monday off? Monday off? Monday off? Three Monday's off!
- Fare ye well into the bell.
Mahalo Minyan! - 3:15 pm
Minyan Duke from Hawaii just shot an email that I thought was worthy of sharing with ye faithful:
As always I appreciate Minyanville being part of my life. You and the professors have guided me through this process such that I was proactive and prepared.
I have been telling friends who are distraught, upset and frightened that this is a great time to invest. Why? It is like a person who has cancer and doesn't know it. Once they find out they have a disease, they have the opportunity to do something about it. Moreover, they appreciate each and every moment they have--they enjoy the little things in life.
That is the process we are in now. We have started chemotherapy and we will get better with time.
Have a great weekend and again, Mahalo.
Jeez Louise! - 3:35 pm
- Are we having fun yet?
- We noted at 2:14 that nobody--and I mean nobody--expected a strong close.
- While that remains to be seen, I'm NOW gonna slip that arm out of the bull suit (the one that was added on the opening, 70-something handles lower), leaving both legs in, or 50% conviction on the upside.
- Again, just trading. 70 handles is 70 handles. I'm not chest thumping. Win, lose or draw, that's never been how we roll in the 'Ville.
- False media, we don't need it do we? I've got a LOT of patience but I've gotta tell ya, some of the stuff I hear in the media really rubs my craw. Cheering up and jeering down is no way to go through life, son.
- Fare ye well into the bell. Be good to others and better to yourself this weekend--you've most certainly earned it.
- May peace be with you.
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