Buzz Bits: Dow, Nasdaq Struggle
Your daily Buzz & Banter highlights...
Bell Buzz - Todd Harrison - 3:24 PM
- If you're way too long (or not short enough) when they downtick and not long enough (or too short) when they uptick, you're prolly grippin' the handlebars too tight. Take a deep breath and take the MV 5% Litmus Test. If you're not cool, either way, up or down a finski, adjust accordingly.
- OK, if i'm togglin' between Petty, Springsteen, Billy Joel and Steely Dan, what does that mean for the close?
- Call me a humping harper but I still think it's N-U-T-S nuts that the world is aflutter with historic stimuli given that the mainstay averages are nicely higher for the year. It's either nuts...or it's very spooky (and will look obvious with the benefit of hindsight).
- What do Heavy D and Biggie Smalls have in common? The same thing that I think this tape is gonna do into the close. Be Heavy.
- Finally, on a totally non-market topic, MANY THANKS to all the MV Professors--excellent stuff this week-- the good folks at MVHQ--it is a blessing to work with ya'll--and YOU--thy faithful who make this community what it is. I am humbled to be a part of such an awesome environment. Not a day goes by without my appreciation and it needs to be said.
- Fare ye well into the bell!
He Who Controls the Spice... - Sean Udall - 2:30 PM
First I thought this quote from the great mind of Frank Herbert (author of Dune), is very appropriate currently: "I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me." There is lots of trading wisdom in those words.
Onto the markets, the Naz is giving its best effort to bend and not break, yet the out-performance of yesterday is proving short-lived. Naz is lagging the S&P today. We are now seeing another push lower and this will be a good test. Another machine-driven Friday meltdown is what a lot of folks are looking for today. I'm not so sure and think the Q's have at least a 50% chance of holding $47.
I'm still seeing good action in the semis but they may be getting tired of pulling on a very heavy rope, they need a little help from any sub-sector in tech land.
I exited my Apple (AAPL) trading long into the move to $127, after narrowly avoiding getting stopped out -- and I am looking to reallocate those funds on the long side. Though I may be inclined to see if I can catch big late day weakness.
Names loaded in the turret are Yahoo (YHOO), and Corning (GLW). Apple as it retests the $122's. I think AAPL will hold the $118-124 level. The daily chart is breaking down, while the hourly may have turned the corner, but that's a very early interpretation. It's a TA tug of war and I think good growth fundies may win out anyway.
Mind the Gap - Quint Tatro - 11:06 AM
Big opening gaps such as we have been having really throw off prudent entries, and I have been spending the better part of this morning resetting alerts rather than wading into this mess at all.
Breadth is terrible and the jury is still out if this is enough pain for one week in order to create another snapper. The bears will tell us that no one will want to step in ahead of the weekend to pick up stocks, but does that mean that shorts won't cover?
I am adding a few more names to my short bounce list from this morning and specifically focusing on the high beta areas that have been pummeled in recent days or have held well throughout the carnage. Here are a few I am watching: Vocus (VOCS), Lam Research (LRCX) and eHealth (EHTH).
A Heads Up on Ears Down - Ryan Krueger - 10:28 AM
A big day down on the farm is being clouded by financial worries that we won't even have enough money left for lunch. The crops are still betting on solvent grocery shoppers.
The USDA provided its first estimate for corn yields on this year's crop based on actual weather conditions, instead of forecasts. And it's big. Clouds helped this industry, rainclouds have provided a bumper crop.
As I have tried to share ahead of this release to Minyans, the higher corn supplies can lead to lower corn prices. The downward pressure is justified and holds the potential to even push lower.
So start connecting the dots back to the temporary beneficiaries. I have cast an eye at Gruma (GMK) the Mexican tortilla manufacturer making its way to Hispanic markets in the U.S. I learned just yesterday that in Harris County (Houston) Hispanics are for the first time the majority, no longer a minority.
Another that might be worth a look if you were curious about playing any bounce short term would be to start with stocks that put a big UNCH on the board yesterday. Archer Daniels (ADM) fits that description and its corn bill just went down.
I have also mentioned Corn Products (CPO) a few times as a potential beneficiary. If Coke (KO) can hit new highs in this messy tape, I think the corn syrup vendors are sitting pretty and they like this crop report.
Longer term, it's time to start thinking about 2008, where Soybeans (losing acres to corn) look tasty to me.
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