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Randoms: Here Comes the Move!


Equities dance on the head of a pin.


Like lightening before thunder ahead of a storm or labor contractions that quicken when a bun's in the oven, an eerie calm has descended on the Street in front of this week's treasury auctions.

With the ten-year tomorrow and thirty-year on Thursday, the collective attention will focus on the tone, tenor, and source of demand. Layer in our technical bookends-S&P 920 below and S&P 950 above-and sprinkle in some quarter-end performance anxiety for good measure-and you've got a recipe for a meaty move.

Some top-line vibes as we figure it all out, with a smile or two for good measure:

  • I wonder if Papa Doc ever got over the thumping he took from B-Rabbit?

  • Keep an eye on Texas Instruments (TXN) and the Semis (not to be confused with Bennie and the Jets) for reaction to news following the constructive post-market news yesterday.

  • While equities, as a leading indicator, have discounted an improvement in corporate credit, it's worth noting that many widely watched credit measures are forecasting a complete reversal of the credit crisis.

  • That doesn't mean we can't traverse the other side of the equity "W," it simply means we should add this to our list of tells to watch when and if we do.

  • Given the reactive marketplace, is it safe to say the buyers on the other side of S&P 950 (just as sellers await on the other side of S&P 920)?

  • If you're hanging with Hoofy, why not slap some trailing stops on your exposure to protect against another failure at triple resistance?

  • Speaking of pennants, are you watching the trannies?

  • No, not in The Crying Game Way (ewww!). Minyan Michael notes that a break above TRAN 3404 is a positive confirmation of the Dow Theory.

  • I need to make a hard decision: Lose the Ambien or lock the freezer. It's really that simple.

  • Any suggestions for the Minyanville Intern 2009 Summer Skit?

  • While initial perception of TARP repayment may be, "The system must be healthy!," will the ultimate reality be 1) further dilution and 2) higher cost structure (as compensation restrictions lift)?

  • Toss this in the "for what it's worth" category, but the scenario that keeps vibing behind my eyes is a false breakout above S&P 950 that ends a few days before the end of the quarter.

  • I'm looking forward to playing SuperUncle in Baltimore this weekend.

  • The silver, black, and blue budget?

  • The standout action thus far today is the dollar, hands down. What's sneaky, Sis, is that while the dollar and asset classes can't rise together, they can slip in sync. That's what we mean when we say that a grubby greenback is a necessary precursor to -- but no guarantor of -- higher asset classes.

  • "Dow theory deals only in closing prices. While a close above 3404 on the trannies is not bearish, it is only a recovery of a secondary high and not the more important high close this January at TRAN 3717. That non-confirmation still looms." --Minyan George "I cuddle with Tom Brady and snuggle with Big Papi" Hill

  • The A.D.D. moment of my day? Taking my eye off Apple (AAPL) this morning after watching it struggle all morning despite the jiggy futures. Opportunties are made up easier than losses, I know, but it's still unfortunate.

  • It would be awesome if someone slipped some truth serum in the policymakers' coffee pot. Just imagine how the testimony might read:

    "I can't believe we're still cleaning up Alan Greenspan's mess while he's teeing off at Del Boca Vista . We never took our medicine on the back of the tech bubble and that monster has been building since. We tried a grand experiment and juggled bubbles---from tech to housing to commodities to, the mother of all bubbles, debt--before the schvitz finally hit the fan.

    With regards to TARP, we're psyched our financial alchemy facilitated the reflation of equities to levels where banks could sell stock to unsuspecting investors. Folks are so focused on the indices that they've barely noticed the decline of the measuring stick. Let's hope the Chinese continue to laugh for if foreign holders of dollar-denominated assets figure out how to de-couple from our currency, we'll really be screwed!

    By the way, have any of you guys seen Minyanville's awesome take on AIG (AIG), John Thain and The Destruction of Capitalism? It's crazy that the guys with the cartoons got the market right while some pundits who were supposed to get the market right acted like cartoons. I only hope these damn hearings don't take too long 'cause I wanna get home to make sure my kids get on Minyanland to learn how to earn, spend, save and give!


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