Time to Buy a Peck of Apple?

Greetings from New York, where I’ve got, in effect, a layover between an incredibly gratifying but very long road trip and a trip to Denver for a debate with the CFA Society of Colorado between yours truly and Burton Malkiel. For those you unfamiliar with Mr. Malkiel, he's the author of A Random Walk Down Wall Street; a book that roughly serves as a statement of faith for all those in the Church of Buy and Hold.

Were I betting man, I’d give the points and bet on the guy who has sold several million books. That said, I am unafraid and, indeed, excited about the opportunity to stand jaw-to-jaw with a legend. My take is less that he is wrong, simply that he is only right 90% of the time, give or take. In other words, I am arguing two points: 1) The vast majority of the time, trading is a mugs game. 2) The reason professional trading and investing remains a viable career and strategy is that recognizing and reacting when the rules change (e.g.: “The bubble bursts” or “we start inventing very expensive acronym-laden programs designed to save that which is already dead”) justifies, both financially and ideologically, the other 90% of the time.

Good trading is grinding. Those looking for sexy occupations should consider stripping. Alas, and for totally different reasons, the professional life span for both professions is about a decade.

Here’s what I’m watching while I play out the string:
 

• It seems there was a mild outburst of howls and demands for retractions regarding my column on Sears Holdings (SHLD). I’ll say this on the topic, I was wrong regarding Eddie Lampert being CEO of the company. He is the Chairman of SHLD. He’s also a rich, talented man and largely runs a chain of which I have been uniformly and openly bearish since literally the first day Fast Money was televised (SHLD peaked at $191, 4 months after our premier).
  
  
• I’ve been openly critical of Sears Holdings in this space for at least 50 pts and nearly a full year. I made not one penny from these critical views and personally don't know anyone who did. I was mistaken in not walking my talk as the stores did and continue to speak for themselves. If you’re under the opinion I am being dishonest or still enraged at my critique, I simply wish you the very best and offer you the smartest investing advice given in the best “serious” stock movie ever made (Wall Street): “Don’t get emotional about stocks.”
  
  
• What I have I actually been trading today? Like Mickey Rourke in The Wrestler (which I finally saw), I’ve been returning to my old scantily clad, regulatory oddity buddy the SDS ETF and matching it with a little add of my Mosaic (MOS). I did okay on both but playing it wee small, in order to match my level of conviction. My focus is scattered to winds like no time in recent memory and this is not a market to be played when unfocused.
  
  
• I’ve been trading around Morgan Stanley (MS). My high-vol bank of choice has been heavier than Haystacks Calhoun all day and, suffice it to say, I’m not crazy about the technical picture on a close under $17. What am I doing about it? Watching it like a hawk, holding onto some of the SDS I added (the two are linked, if not perfectly correlated) and noting it freely as a reminder that, right and wrong, like the rest of the Profs I’m hear to share the process, not pick fights or “prove” much anything.
  
  
• One name that does have something to prove is Apple (AAPL), which is spelunking back towards its old 52-week lows around $80 per share. It went to my original $100 target, where I failed to take off nearly enough in profits and, as so often happens in this tape, gave them away by so doing. At $83 and change I’ve got what amounts to a starter position. The plan for now is to add to it at $80, if and when, and keep a tight $75 stop on it. As Todd-O says, sometimes right, sometimes wrong, always honest (regardless of what you hear from the riff-raff).
  
  
• Two final thoughts, before I get back to prepping for my battle with Burton: One, Google (GOOG) is rather hard to ignore. It’s got support $30 points lower, a nasty roll-over look to it, and, as it turns out, a core business involving ad sales. Danger, Will Robinson.
  
  Two, I mentioned the best serious Wall Street movie. What’s the best intentionally funny trading flick (the “intentionally” rules out Quicksilver)? Trading Places, obviously. There are some things I simply will not debate.