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Random Thoughts: Debt Elasticity Unlikely


The consumer is probably not the best horse to bet on...

  • There is a ton of intelligent content over on The Exchange. It's free, it's cool, its our community. Go for it.

  • "Go to" places for upside exposure, if and when? I'm still thinking Pharma and consumer non-durables with the understanding that you can't spend relative performance.

  • I don't see Shaq in the Phoenix style of balling. It gives 'em a defensive presence but the big guy lumbers and the Suns like to run the floor.

  • I get the feeling that we're gonna look back at a teenage Schering (SGP) and say "Dude, I had this one."

  • Hoofy and Boo take a look at the Hollywood Writer's Strike. I think this is one of the funnier episodes they've done.

  • Out of this morning's gate, we noted market breadth wasn't too shabby all things considered. That, coupled with the first line of defense by the financials (we were watching how they reacted to the inevitable probe lower), gave Hoofy some hope.

  • "Let me tell you something my friend. Hope is a dangerous thing. Hope can drive a man insane." Ellis Boyd Redding

  • When's the last time you ate butterscotch?

  • OK, so I'm sitting at BLT Steak last night and I overheard two women talking about being "ATF." Does anyone know what this means? I can't believe it had anything to do with tobacco or firearms.

  • The Following Buzz took place between 11:00 AM and 12:00 PM:

    MVHQ chews through some Mercury Retrograde for brunch--complete with system hash brown-outs--but our mojo seems to be back up and running. I used to go ballistic when we "went down" but repeated pleas of "This is the internet--these things happen" have finally softened my stance.

    Do you believe me?

    As we boot back to life, the first thing I did was put on
    the proper mood music. From there, I share the following fare:

    • Cody Willard said to me last night, when discussing this column, "Wow man, you're dire." My response was that there are alotta conversations and considerations involved. The markets are multi-linear with alotta moving parts--such as the dollar--so while I'm conscious of the risks, I always respect the "other side."

    • Hoofy continues to monitor the January lows for a potential "double bottom" bounce. Boo will wryly note that we've got "lower highs" in virtually every sector and until that changes, rallies opportunities to make sales. Both are right, as it stands, but one will be wrong pretty soon. The benefit of doubt remains with the bears.

    • Y'all see the dollar edging to session highs?

    • For the first time in a long time, I tried to nibble on some Apple for a pure trade. I know, I know, it's not a pharma or consumer non-durable but this puppy has taken a brutal beating into a decent level. If we break $120 with oompha, the market likely has bigger issues.

    • Of course, as I tried to enter my order, our systems browned out and I missed the offer. Grr and Grr-rrr! I am not sure sure I wanna pay up but it's on my radar and in my crosshairs. So you know.

    • I'll be back, Minyans, I hope this finds you well.

  • Sooo…yeah, I got hit on those Apple (AAPL) calls, so you know. Pure trade, not huge and defined risk.

  • I love the Minyanville community. The fact that I got a flurry of emails updating me on the whereabouts of Terence Trent Darby put a huge smile on my puss.

  • Ahh, this makes much more sense. Evidently, Warren Buffett said the dollar would be "worth less" rather than "worthless."

  • To bet on the consumer is to bet that debt is elastic from these levels. It's not impossible but it's not likely.

  • Hey, have you heard the one from Boo & The Depressions?



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Position in AAPL

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

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