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18 Reasons Microsoft Won't Be Apple


Despite some common threads, there are lots of reasons Microsoft's report will differ from Apple's.

1. Microsoft (MSFT) probably won't blow away current results as much as Apple (AAPL) did.

2. MSFT doesn't have the truly ground-breaking products coming out that AAPL does.
2a. Well, I'll give the Halo franchise "truly groundbreaking" status!

3. Expectations, while high for MSFT, are not nearly as high as were AAPL's.

4. The whole whisper game is not as prevalent with Mr. Softie.

5. Corporate spending is the sweet spot for MSFT. Consumer spending is much less important.

6. Product ramps for MSFT are slower and less robust but have just as good of a shelf life, maybe better.

7. Vista sales have yet to peak, in fact, due to the length of Vista's ramp, figuring the peak point may be irrelevant.

8. The market will give MSFT the benefit of the doubt with respect to Virtualization for now.

9. The Citrix Systems (CTXS) deal may be further emphasized.

10. MSFT will benefit from the advancements in the Internet's next leg, major changes in data center technology and the proliferation of high-bandwidth applications over IP.

11. MSFT has a better chance of moving higher after it reports than AAPL did.

12. Longer term, I don't think it's a stretch to give MSFT a $40 handle.

13. Longer term, I still think MSFT needs to get more aggressive on M&A, but it has improved of late.

14. AAPL still monetizes from its Net traffic much better than MSFT does.

15. MSFT could still make huge improvements in how it monetizes its net traffic. If it did so, it could be huge for future multiple expansion.

16. MSFT is probably one of the safer plays ahead of EPS.

17. I will be a buyer of any material weakness after it reports, but material weakness should be 5% or less, not 15-20%.

18. I may be a buyer of strength after it reports.

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Position in AAPL.

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