Random Thoughts: Positioning for Turnaround Tuesday
By Todd Harrison May 19, 2008 12:45 pm
How today closes will determine tomorrow's action.
- Given this news, there's no reason that Hoofy and Boo can't run on an independent ticket in November.
- While I'm skewed short-some market stuff such as Apple (AAPL) (tight stop) but primarily energy plays-and I've got some long exposure against it (newspapers, airlines), we offered this morning that the "straight down" after expiration may be too easy.
- They call it "Turnaround Tuesday" for a reason, Yo.
- While the Bernanke Swap has replaced the Greenspan put, the scary truth is that nobody knows what lurks beneath the bank balance sheets. And don't get me started on Fannie (FNM) and Freddie (FRE) as they encapsulate everything that's wrong with financial engineering and "look the other way" regulation.
- I always thought Paul Pierce was over-rated. That is, until yesterday, when he manned up LeBron and carried the Celtics to the Eastern Conference Championship. I said way back that I yearned for an old school Lakers-Celtics and that very much remains in play.
- The Continental (CAL) calls were my "alternative" play on a crude reversal. JP Morgan came out this morning and downgraded them to underweight. My risk is defined (via a sell-stop) below $16 but there's no putting lipstick on this pig. It's been a not-so-hot trot thus far and we don't sweep those under the rug in the 'Ville-we learn from them.
- Standout action? Apple continues to field supply, the dollar is trying to find footing, the homies are rolling, Baidu (BIDU) is bid (in front of the company speaking at a conference), Lowe's (LOW) is lower (-3%) , the trannies are at an all-time high (crazy!).
- I'm trying to tough through my knee situation as evidenced by my 6:00 AM training session today. I'm still kickboxing, sans the kicks, with hopes that I can push this procedure to the other side of the summer.
- For the record and so it's said, I believe that this is a bear market rally.* Remember, we saw four rallies of 10-20% during 2000-2002, each of which was littered with false hope and empty promises.
- The asterisk above is a function of respect as the government has thrown-and will continue to throw-everything they can to support our finance based way of life. It's the Wishbone World we spoke about and a discussion worth revisiting for contextual purposes.
- I'm sorta getting used to the whole Truman Show, although it's another layer of stress on top of an already jammy daily routine.
- Tenacity and perseverance are the stepping-stones between dreams and reality and I'll do whatever it takes to see the 'Ville through to it's potential. Walt Disney meets Wall Street, baby. If Walt can brand two rodents as cultural icons, we can surely brand the bull and bear and affect positive change through financial understanding. I'm putting that out into the universe. What comes back will likely astound us all.
Position in cal, aapl
Get The Minyanville
Daily Recap Newsletter
Daily Recap Newsletter