Looking For Love In All the Wrong Places
We all need to remember that hope isn't a viable investment strategy.
Thanks Scoop! - 1:10 pm
Mike Mayo, the influential analyst at DeutscheBank, just downgraded JP Morgan (JPM) from Buy to Hold. And only 26% off last summer's high...
The good news? The bulls wanna see the research community capitulate.
The bad news? $40 is a pretty important technical level for the House of Diamond.
Engine Room, More Scream! - 1:52 pm
Hey, did you see that? It was a Snapper attempt off the 1:00 EST low that recaptured 8 handles on the S&P. Missed it? It's not your fault--it was done and doner before anxious traders turned seller and hit bids. Thatquick!
I'll tell ya, I'm watching Citi (C) and the financials--as well as Apple (AAPL) and the techs--and the price action isn't exactly encouraging. Tapes that are heavy all day tend to end that way, we know, and Fat Albert seems to be sitting on this market.
While we've discussed the importance of this close, there are two elements that should be mentioned. The first is that expiration is this Friday and that tends to exacerbate volatility (both ways) in the days preceding expiry. The other is that we're right in the FOMC wheelhouse (in terms of a surprise cut) so it's difficult to have a high degree of confidence on overnight risk.
See both sides and measure your risk. Something tells me that the flickering ticks will bicker quicker into the close.
As always, I hope this finds you well.
One, cut a Hole in the Box. Two, stick the Fed in a Box. Three, and then you open the Box... - 3:06 pm
It's nuttier than Austin Power's coffee out there so in the vein of literary leniency, I'm gonna scribe vibes as they pop in my head and flow through my fingers:
- Banks, we know. Beta, heck, we shouldn't be shocked. Energy? We've long offered that when crude precipitously slips, it would be a bigger issue for the bulls than $100 crude. It's a G-thang, baby. No, just kidding. It's a supply-demand thang.
- Are we there? Are we there? We may need to see the DBA (agricultural ETF) on it's arse before we're officially there. It's still green and my P&L has envy.
- Driller? I don't even know 'er! Still, note that the OSX uptrend has been violated more than... wait, I can't say that. Editor Christina "Buzz &" Banta would never allow it!
- Minyan Cody asks "Will rate cuts do it?" My response was that the S&P was down 40% since the first cut in January 2001 and one could argue that the debt bubble is more pervasive than the tech bubble. BUT, Hank is also furious pushing the button (TAF, Working Group, etc) so there is hope. We just need to remember that hope isn't a viable investment strategy.
- HOLY MOTHER OF GAWD, THE VXN (NDX VXO) IS DOWN TODAY?
- Guess who has meetings all day tomorrow? No, I couldn't possibly make that up!
- For what it's worth, I still like the way Applied Materials (AMAT, Intel (INTC) and EMC Corp. (EMC) are trading. At least for the time being.
- And please, so it's said, when we get the inevitable rally (from where we don't know), keep the cheerleaders at Lambeau. And no, they're not happy to see you, they're just cold.
- Hey, it's a tough day--never lose your sense of humor, Francis!
Bell Buzz! - 3:50 pm
- OK, conspiracy theories aside, does anyone doubt that Hank and Ben are BFF? The one-two punch of the Plunge Protection Team and--just you watch--a "surprise" cut into expiration may be desperate but, hey, desperate times call for desperate measures.
- So it's said, I still think it's a Band-Aid on a broken bone, albeit one that could produce the perception of invulnerability.
- One of the sharper tacks on the Street pinged me near the lows and said "don't confuse the bottom of your screen with support." I would love to take credit for that because A) that's not my style and B) I have no interest in credit.
- How can some people still subscribe to the thought that the louder you scream, the more important your message? I'll take the other side of that trade all day long and twice on Sunday.
- I don't know about you but I could use a road trip, orange whip and toga party all rolled into one. Especially as it looks like we're closing below the double secret technical probation mentioned earlier.
- Hey, Lowe's (LOW) and Home Depot (HD), what are you doing in Matador City?
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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