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Random Thoughts: Fed Running Out of Bullets


Are they out of ammo as we test the lows?

  • As shared real-time on the morning Buzz, I unwound my shorts in the drillers out of the gate-taking profits in the Schlumberger (SLB) and Halliburton (HAL) puts on the gap lower opening-and bought Baidu (BIDU) and Apple (AAPL) for a pure trade as they slipped into the abyss.

  • With the double bottom in place (S&P 1270, DJIA 11640), I continue to feel that traders will buy dips above those levels. That should be good for at least a try higher, at which point we'll finger the pulse anew.

  • While grabbing a coffee at the kiosk this morning, I was reading the Post and said to myself "Jeezums, for $4300, I sure hope she did the dishes." The woman behind me (who I realize was there) gave me a look that would freeze ice.

  • During the real season, I would have a problem with this. In the pre-season, I don't see what the harm is.

  • Where there's smoke, there's Bear Stearns (BSC). Large Cap high profile brokerage firms that swing 15% per session doesn't give Hoofy the warm and fuzzies.

  • It is, however, the type of panicky action that might-just might-be an obvious after-the-fact sign of a short-term low.

The Following Buzz took place at 11:12 EST...

  • See Fannie (FNM) and Freddie (FRE) as they flip the upside switch.

  • Ditto Merrill (MER), which is trying to do the same.

  • Homies too, homies.

  • Alotta the energy names as well, including Smith International (SII) and Nabors Industries (NBR). Better to be lucky than smart.

  • Beta isn't acting as well as I would like--yet--but that's par for the course. Nothing comes easy in this tape.

  • I've been pretty negative for a long time and trust me, I still respect the risk. Still, having covered my shorts and collected long exposure--with defined risk--I'm trying to do what traders do. Hit it to quit it and, at times, sit it out.

  • I'll be speaking at tonight's 10th Annual Techapalooza Shindig at Bear Stearns. From there? Fam time, Yo, as my bro is in town and there aren't many things better than tossing a few back with your blood.

  • So you know and so it's said, I plan to revisit the dark side in the drillers at a point.

Engine Room, More Randoms!

  • If you've never spied Things I've Learned, it's worthy of a gander.

  • Given how many bullets the Fed has used, how much ammunition will they have left if we again test the lows?

  • I remember when Minyans mingled in the Mountains as far back as 2004 when we spoke about $100 crude and $1000 gold. Some people looked at us like we had sixteen heads and others, as my inbox would dictate, took our words to heart (and wallet). Noice.

  • How great was B-Rabbit in his freestyle battle against Papa Doc?

  • As I'm outie tomorrow, I plan to have a flat pad (outside of some meaty situations) such that I don't spend tomorrow's plane ride stressing about risk I can't control. There aren't many things worse than that. Outside of carnies, close talkers and people who chew with their mouth open, of course.

  • May peace be with you.


Positions in AAPL, BIDU

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

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