Random Thoughts: Miracles and Minyanville
Great moments... are born from great opportunity.
Editor's Note: The following content was posted in real-time on our premium Buzz & Banter and is being shared here for the benefit of the Minyanville community.
Gate Sniffage - 9:39 am
- Following yesterday's fugly action, you can be certain of one thing--we'll see a probe at a point. The quicker it happens, the sooner we'll see what this tape is made of.
- What am I watching (into that probe, and otherwise)? Lehman (LEH), for obvious reasons, along with Washington Mutual (WM) and AIG (AIG), beta (Apple (AAPL) $150 is big), the dollar, market breadth and the clock. It's already a long week.
- You know what's a curious red head today? Goldman (GS). It caught my eye right out of the gate.
- Ya think? Commodity index investors sold $39 billion worth of oil futures between July and Sept. 2.
- Circling the Wagons? Warren Buffet has told his Berkshire (BRK.A) to stop writing insurance for bank deposits over the FDIC's $100k limit
- I'm gonna make some disciplined, partial sales in my USO call position vs. yesterday's late day adds. So ya know.
- Good luck Minyans--be the ball.
HOLYCOWTOOMUCHCOFEE - 10:09 am
President Fish brought me a large McDonald's iced coffee this morning and I'm running around like a juiced up Magda! I mean--who knew I could ever type this fast? Let's get crackin'!
How would I describe this market? In a word, Fragile.
- That doesn't mean we can't rally--breadth is 2:1 positive--but real risk remains.
- Red beans in the green sea include Apple (AAPL) (again, watch $150), WaMu (WM) (Wa-Two?), United Technologies (UTX), Applied Materials (AMAT), Amazon (AMZN) and Google (GOOG).
- Hmm... Google...Goldman (GS)...
- I've sold 40% of my (admittedly too big on the close) USO call position. Just trading, and trying to do so with discipline.
- I've also got some General Electric (GE) puts and some Campbell Soup (CPB) calls. Not advice, naturally, but I like the rhythm of those sector bets.
- In the heat of the rhythm of the night.
- Lemme hop...
You were born to be Minyans. Each and every one of ya. This is YOUR time. Now go out there and take it!!! - 10:56 am
While the market is skating on thin ice, it's important to remember that nobody scores goals playing defense on their heels. Think positive--trade positive--be positive. Profitability begins within.
- Bloomberg is reporting that Goldman (GS) is reworking terms of credit agreements with prime brokerage clients as a part of an effort to better control its exposure to hedge funds. Remember Minyans, risk appetite and social mood shapes tapes.
- I'm always early, I know, but I sold the meat of my USO "overage" into this morning's strength. I've learned through the years that if you're staring at any one particular instrument, the position is likely too big. I'm now in a better position to buy dips and sell blips, although I'll again reiterate that this is a trade in the context of structural deflation.
- As goes the piggies, so goes the smoke. Pay particular attention to WaMu (WM) (-15%), Wachovia (WB) (-5%) and, of course, The Brothers Lehman (LEH) (up a quarta) for bead on structural psychology in the sector.
- Television's JeffMacke® and I agree to disagree on alotta things. The sheer brilliance of Miracle--and, in particular, Kurt Russell as Herb Brooks--is one thing we're in lockstep agreement on.
"Great moments... are born from great opportunity. And that's what you have here, today, boys. That's what you've earned here today.
One session. If we played 'em ten times, they might win nine.
But not this session. Not today.
Today, we trade with them.
Today, we stay with them. And we shut them down because we can!
Today, WE are the greatest trading community in the world.
You were born to be traders. Every one of you. And you were meant to be here today.
This is your time. Their time is done. It's over.
I'm sick and tired of hearing about what a hard market this is.
Screw 'em. This is your time.
Now go out there and take it."
Answers I Really Wanna Know... - 11:36 am
Is the industry wide implementation of the "short-tick" rule the last bullet in the government gun?
- Can they afford to wait until expiration for maximum "bang for the buck?"
- Are you trading smaller as a function of the wicked volatility?
- And allowing for two-sided risk as we find our way?
- Did Minyans read Pep's piece on PIMCO's Bill Gross?
- Isn't it nice to read that PIMCO made $1.7 billion on the bailout?
- Given I sold a lot of USO into the opening pop, can I dabble anew into the subsequent drop? (Yes)
- Particularly as crude gets to par?
- Aren't we supposed to sell up and buy down?
- Given our mantra of "as goes the piggies, so goes the smoke," shouldn't we naturally assume that either the banks catch a bid or the tape hits the skids?
- Anyone else notice the dollar quietly up a percent?
- While most folks think that's a good thing?
- Haven't we learned anything during our time together?
- Is anyone else ready for some love?
GET TODD'S INSIGHTS AND IDEAS FROM 30 OTHER TOP TRADERS IN REAL-TIME EVERY DAY ON BUZZ & BANTER.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at email@example.com.
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