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Random Thoughts: Bull Costume Update


The bovine look to make a stand into the FOMC.


The following content was posted in real time on our premium Buzz & Banter. It's being shared here for the benefit of the Minyanville community.

Minyan Mailbag: China Broken? - 9:10 am

Hello Todd,

Perhaps it's just a matter of perspective, but is China really broken technically? I could make a case for it basing over 2600, rather than churning under 2950/3000. That would certainly fit better with the bull costume, seems to me.

Click here to enlarge.

-Minyan P.


It could be---or could be head and shoulders. The thing with technicals is we'll never 'know' without the benefit of hindsight. That's why I view them as a context with which to define risk rather than a catalyst with which to initiate it.


Gate Sniffage! - 9:55 am

  • Please note the third "higher low" in the S&P at 1250. Since it closed at 1235 on July 15th, the bulls held higher ground at 1235 on July 28th and 1250 yesterday.

  • Through a trading lens, the latter levels can be used for near-term risk definition. I've still got two legs in my metaphorical bull costume (despite making some token, disciplined sales in Morgan Stanley (MS) on the opening) and will roll my stop higher in kind.

  • Should these levels remain underfoot, an upside scamper becomes more likely with time. When and if that happens, performance anxiety would percolate as fund managers eye their third quarter letters. It's a bit forward-looking but that's how the market trades and we must as well if we're to keep up.

  • Wouldn't "men friendly" hotel rooms be littered throughout the Women friendly floors?

  • Personally, any time Hoofy and Boo can work Easy-E into their vibe, I'm a happy camper.

  • I've tried a snivlet of Apple (AAPL) calls with tight and defined risk on the other side of yesterday's low ($153). Just tradin'.

  • Note Grandma Goldman (GS) is flipping the crimson switch. That's the one stock that Hoofy doesn't wanna see turn Punky Brewster.

  • I continue to think that credit card companies have a few ways to lose. Just my two cents (read: not advice) but I've been trading Visa (V) front the short side (covered Friday, re-initiated a small put position today) as a hedge against some of my other longs.

  • You gotta love that we got the Grateful Dead on Fox Business in honor of Jerry's 66th on Friday!

  • The definition of professional nirvana is to do what you love with people you respect while serving the greater good. With that in mind, thank YOU, YOU and YOU for allowing us to do the voodoo that we do.

More Answers I Really Wanna Know... - 10:43 am

  • As FOMC days are traditionally a tale of two tapes (with 2:15 serving as the toggle), doesn't discipline dictate making some disciplined sales against the exposure we added yesterday morning?

  • In that regard, wouldn't now be an opportune time to communicate that I've rotated my risk out of Mother Morgan (MS) and made partial sales on my QLD (ultra QQQ (proshares) and Citigroup (C)?

  • Given the potential for near-term volatility, is my new bull costume "stop" below S&P 1250 too tight?

  • Would red beans in today's green seas include Goldman (GS), Blackstone (BX), Altria (MO), Amgen (AMGN), Broadcom (BRCM) Jabil (JBL) and Microchip (MCHP)?

  • If Deutsche Bank (DB) can catch a wave into par ($100), wouldn't that be a nice and tight short-side try for Boo?

  • How about Continental (CAL) into $16, particularly given the widespread (false) acceptance that lower crude is a lockstep positive catalyst for the airlines?

  • Why am I gaining weight and losing hair?

  • Wouldn't it be awesome if that dynamic was reversed?

I need a Miracle, every day! - 11:22 am

  • Is Miracle the most under-rated sports flick of all time? After all, great moments are indeed born from great opportunities.

  • Holy cow, has anyone else noticed the 100% rally in Ambac (ABK) this month? That's nutty considering that "this month" thus far consists of three trading days?

  • I continue to piece out of my upside exposure in the financials as a function of discipline. Why? Risk rotation (into tech) for one, the 40% rally in the last two weeks, for deux, and the looming FOMC, for tres.

  • I continue to monitor BKX 68.60--which would be a technically significant 'higher high" on a closing basis--but we don't need to "play" the financials to "play" that dynamic, if you catch my drift.

  • Energy over financials? The year-to-date out-performance now sits at a paltry three percent after the 34% month-to-date out-performance of the piggies.

  • While the Visa (V) short is a "trade on a thesis" more than a "trade for the day," I'm gonna slap my stop on the other side of my entry level. Risk definition is your friend in this type of tape!

  • See the technical importance of Wal-Mart (WMT) $60. You don't have to agree with it, you simply have to respect it!

  • Please see the technical significance of NDX 1850 for those dabblin' in the four-letter freaks.


For more insights, please read Random Thoughts: Big Ben Chimes


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