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Randoms: The Monday Thump!


A bear scare greets a slinky summer session

  • If you thought people were peeved after the American International Group (AIG) boondoggles, can you imagine the societal acrimony that'll percolate when word spreads of record bonuses at Goldman Sachs (GS)?

  • And then, of course, there's this.

  • The reason assigned to the downside rhyme today is The World Bank lowering global growth estimates from -1.7% to -2.9%. Much like with Caterpillar (CAT) last week (-11%), the reaction to news is more telling than the news itself.

  • Y'all see this uber-important trend line in Apple (AAPL) dating back to the March lows? Bulls in the hood looking for defined risk ahead of potential quarter-end posturing would be wise to keep it on their radar.

  • You know what else trades relatively dry? The retail complex, with Lowe's (LOW), Home Depot (HD) and Target (TGT) hugging the flat-line. They-and the rest of the tape, for that matter-may have to wait until Turnaround Tuesday for some reflective redemption but it warrants a mention nonetheless.

  • My grandfather, among many other lessons, taught me never to speak ill of my competitors. I remind myself of that as I tweak each chapter of the Memoirs series.

  • S&P 900 is the front and center level of lore. Break, and we'll likely beeline to S&P 875 (from where we broke out). Hold and S&P 920-and then S&P 950-will come into focus as next tangible resistance.

  • The big picture, as always, is made up of alotta little pictures.

  • Remember, there are no pundits. If we're to learn anything from the latest Wall Street crash, it's that the onus is on each of us to make our own financial decisions.

  • Stephanie Pomboy makes one groovy hippie. So does Fil Zucchi, Dougie Kass and Jeff Saut. Meanwhile, Pepe made a heckuva entrance as Tricky Dick while Michael Santoli and Aaron Task dressed like his secret service detail.

  • Oh, the tea leaves?

    • The dollar? Higher. While this is a "broader lens" thought, isn't good for asset classes, as evidenced by the 4% slippage in Texas Tea and the double-digit decline in gold.

    • Breadth? Nosty, at 9:1 negative.

    • Banks? They're getting the five finger Charlie as Bank of America (BAC) (-6%), Deutsche Bank (DB) (-7%) and Wells Fargo (WFC) (-4%) take it on the chin.

    • Beta? Baidu (BIDU) and Research in Motion (RIMM) are both down a finski. Google (GOOG) is down double digits.

    • Dry eyes? Retail, as mentioned, and the homies, although they failed precisely at the trend line we highlighted at the time they tested it.

The Following Thought Was Offered by Adam "Tush" Heine on Today's Buzz & Banter:

"The other day I received information from one of the major financial institutions on a change in process on how they deal with non-performing real estate assets. Historically, when they had a non-performing loan underwritten on a real estate asset they turned to the market and sold off that note. It seems the market for non-performing loans has dried up to such an extent that the bank is taking on the actual property and marketing it at a discount to the marketplace as a method of disposal.

I'm not going to even begin and dissect what ramifications this might have to the banks or banking sector if this becomes convention. However, if one is in the market to scoop up what is deemed to be cheap real estate for investment purposes, I would recommend proceeding with selectivity, patience and a buyer beware mentality, as the market might get flooded with bank dispositions that result in an overhang and weight on any remote possibility of capital appreciation."

Hit 'em hard, Minyans, and remember--let's be careful out there.


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