Toyota: Most Overrated Company on Earth?
Greetings from New York, where the list of countries attending this weekend's G20 meeting calls to mind the old Groucho Marx line about not wanting to belong to any club that would have him as a member. Italy? Turkey? China? I'm keeping my expectations in check by assuming absolutely nothing productive comes out of the meeting - and hoping there aren't any fist fights. As a hedge on at the latter, I'm taking Putin by an early, savage, beating.
Here's what I'm doing when not handicapping fights between global leaders (and followers):
- I've done a grand total of one trade today, which was re-entering my short in Toyota (TM). Not to get all "jargony" on you, but I've done some research on this and, as it turns out, Toyota makes expensive things consumers buy and drive to places like "shopping malls." Toyota is no longer the most overrated company on Earth - but it's close enough for me to want to be on the other side of yesterday's rally.
- Overheard at this weekend's G20 meeting: "So... You Russian fellas wanna give British Petroleum (BP) any access to that plant it built for you? Nyet? Well, that's a disappointment. How about if we get you tickets to the new Bond flick?"
- Documentary film maker Michael Moore is reportedly "feverishly shooting" a documentary regarding the American economy with an "end of the empire" tone. Presumably the frenzied pace is to allow Moore's latest work to be released on the 20th anniversary of Roger and Me, which documented the disastrous effects of General Motors (GM) cutting its workforce in Flint, Michigan. GM recently opened a $300 million plant in Flint, which builds the V6 engines; information I share with you only because the $300 million plant is just one of the assets US taxpayers will soon own a portion of through our $25 billion "Bridge Loan." So, there is that.
- "Goodbye, Lolita." Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) is just one of many retailers being tortured after earnings fell a disappointing 44%. The economy is so bad parents have finally stopped allowing their daughters to buy pre-distressed, trashy outfits. Abercrombie not only illustrates the futility of long-term love affairs with specialty retail, but the challenge of trading retail at all in this market. There was no one, anywhere, who expected Abercrombie to somehow buck the trend of an economy which went from "slowing" to "dead" sometime in October yet the stock is still down another 10% today. Abercrombie longs are left envious of Lolita and Humbert's fates.
- Speaking of pain and regret (which are admittedly fairly low-hanging creative fruit), which year-to-date return through November 14th would have shocked you the most last New Year's Day: Apple (AAPL) down 54%; Goldman Sachs (GS) down 68%; or crude oil down 40%? I'd have to go with crude, if only because so many folks are trying to prop it up, many of whom will be at the G20 this weekend.
- Finally, to my considerable distress, I've learned that one half of of the Batman & Robin of Money Honey's, Ms. Erin Burnett, will be spending time with Vladimir Putin next week. Not only is Putin considered to be the sexiest man alive by both Mrs. Jeffmacke and Karen Finerman, he has documented skills with assorted tranquilizers. For the record, Ms. Burnett finds my concern for her safety "Insane" and suggests Mrs. Jeffmacke and Finerman both "need help."
That's what the tiger thought as well, Erin.
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Seriously, I do enjoy the man and he does make me think! I just wish I had had his eye on the market a year or so ago, but, unfortunately, I was busy with my day job.
No need to ask in the third person. I actually read the stuff on Minyanville. Thanks for the compliments and, dang, if I I helped "make (you) think" then my work here is done.
I'm as happy as a bull as I am a bear. I was bullish last year. Not sure if I was amusing but I know I took plenty o' heat for the stance. I surrendered last December and have been fairly negative since. Hopefully I'll still be entertaining, if not funny, if and when I get more bullish. If I'm right, I'll certainly be more reach as it's much easier to make money in a bull market than it is in this mess.
As is, the answer to your question is I go with the flow, in terms of my market take. In terms of being amusing... I yam what I yam, for better and worse.
I didn't expect YOU to respond, but it's good to know you read this stuff.
My comments were to the intensity of your position, and not to the direction. It's been my observation that there are "perma-bears" who are always negative (glass half full - and leaking) and "Pollyannas" (no where to go but higher), but it's unusual to find someone who's comfortable being equally enthusiastic in both directions.
Your comments on teaching your kids to be grifters is concerning to me, as it implies a VERY long term negative outlook (Happy Birthday to your daughter, by the way). Even Kevin Tuttle's long term view of the Dow is that we're in a secular consolidation period and, at Dow 8K at the low end of that.
My own personal perspective is that today, in contrast to 1929-32, change happens much quicker and more intensively as so much of the market is "market effect" rather than economic effect. Your own trading in and out of BNI and TM seem to me to indicate you're investing in market emotion ("should rally" or "hitting resistance") which occurs intradaily, rather than asset behavior(more profitable or less profitable) which occurs over months or years. Please take that as an observation, not a criticism! Therefore, the act of trading induces volatility which creates tension which, coupled with automated trading programs, whipsaws the market. As you and others have pointed out, the value of these companies doesn't change by 10% in a day, even though their market capitalization based on minute-by-minute prices may.
Anyway, I do enjoy your stimulating observations, laced with sarcastic humor.
My Hobo jokes serve two purposes. One, I just find them amusing (though I can certainly understand why others wouldn't). Two, The New Deal didn't work. Unemployment was still over 20% in 1938.
I don't want to kill hope. I want to inspire others to demand different solutions to those used in the past.
