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Random Thoughts: As Goes Goldman...


Financials tell the tale, especially this one.


Editor's Note: This is a compilation of thoughts from today's Buzz & Banter (free trial), delivered in real time. It's being reposted here for the benefit of the Minyanville community.

It was the Dukes, it was the Dukes! - 8:48 am

Goldman Sachs is out and it's handily beat on the top and bottom line. As I furiously pound my keyboard, the stock is up more than $4 in pre-market trading.

I was involved in this stock into earnings and, while suffering from premature evacuation, maintain that the easy trade has passed. Remember, field position is everything when trading and this puppy is $25 higher than it was three short sessions ago.

Meanwhile, while everyone is back slapping at Duke & Duke, Beeks slipped out the orange crop report (a.k.a. PPI), which was higher than expectations, dampening the mood a bit.

Shocker, right? Food and energy prices are up. Geez, I'll take "masters of the obvious for $200, Alex."

I'll be back, friends. It's 8:45 and I've already put three long hours into this Turnaround Tuesday.

Engine room, more steam!

Gate Sniffage! - 9:47 am

  • Following a $25 pop since last Wednesday, I said to Pep as Goldman (GS) opened, "Hey Bubba, if it ain't going up, you know what that means." It's an early thought, I know, but it's most certainly worth a mention. If investors sell the news, focus will quickly shift to the PPI.

  • Where art thou, Olympic torch? Shanghai, so you see it, closed down another 3% yesterday.

  • The pink piggy in the poke? Lehman (LEH), which continues to struggle with the overhand at $28 (where that slug of supply was offered last week). While I've generally avoided piling into this complex, I'm comfy taking a downside flier with a tight and defined stop on the other side of that level.

  • Jeezums, can we be any busier? I guess it's better than the alternative, eh? Woof!

  • S&P 1370--the neckline of the head & shoulders--remains in place for the time being. So you see it.

  • Petty tonight. Nice. Coldplay on Monday? Sup!

  • OK, enough drivel, lemme hop and trade this beast. As always, be the ball yo, and just remember, you're a Minyan!

Answers I Really Wanna Know... - 10:57 am

  • What's the appropriate distance to stand behind someone while waiting at the ATM?

  • Are anxious fund managers already starting to hide in "bang for the buck" beta plays such as Apple (AAPL), Baidu (BIDU), Research in Motion (RIMM) and Amazon (AMZN)?

  • If Goldman (GS) can't save the banks, how telling is that for the broader tape?

  • Is the "best case" for the tape a slow, steady ketchup to an already beaten down financial complex?

  • Does anyone have a line on where I can scoop a deuce for Monday's Coldplay show at MSG?

  • How many bears pressed the break (below $400) in the CME Group (CME)?

  • How the heck does the NY Post nail the horoscope every single day?

  • Was that first press lower the "easy" trade today?

President Tyler, I Presume? - 11:43 am

  • While NYSE internals are trying to put on a brave face, my eyes continue to drift towards the XBD (broker index) and BKX (banks), both of which are listening to some serious chin music. Remember our mantra, Minyans, as we share it with good reason.

  • Big beta continues to trade like fund managers are piling in. That'll either self-fulfill or create one heckuva bottle neck into (or after) quarter-end. For my part and with my coin, I'm standing on those sidelines.

  • The Lehman (LEH) flier from earlier? Pure trade. As such, with the stock down a quick finski (5%), I'm gonna peel out of some and trade around the leaves. Winky would surely agree.

  • Pork bellies, which are used to make bacon. As you might find in a bacon, lettuce and tomato sandwich.

  • Digging the 'Ville? Tell a friend! That's how we grow and it's why the 'Ville is, well, the 'Ville!

  • As always, I hope this finds you well.

Silver, Black and Blue - 1:05 pm

  • So you wanna be a Raider fan, eh? Javon Walker, who just signed a $55 million deal with the Silver and Black, fractured his eye socket after popping off--literally--in the city of sin. Welcome to my world.

  • Ken Lewis at BankAmerica (BAC) is either a genius or... not so much. With MBNA already on his sheets, he effectively doubled down on the consumer with the CountryWide (CFC) purchase. He may be right--I may be crazy--but that's a tough bet into the teeth of a multi-year deleveraging process.

  • Ya wanna know the irony of all these financial chieftains being pushed out? They can sell their stock in the open market. Case in point is Warren Specter, who was pushed out at Bear Stearns. While Rome was burning, he netted up to $100 million. Nuts, right?

  • Have I mentioned how much I love Tuesdays? Two Minyanville columns, multiple buzzes, my MarketWatch syndicated column (due at 4pm), two Fox Business live hits, trading, building, being and, today, a 1:15pm interview with a leading NY publication. I'm not complaining, I'm just... venting a bit.

  • Oh yeah, the tape? I continue to trade around a short bias with an eye towards risk management. What's that mean? Hit it to quit it, as an over-arching theme and a tighter leash on smaller size. Aside from a handful of cores, my market vehicles today have been the S&P, USO and Lehman (LEH).

  • Gorilla? Clown? Moi? Pass the red rubber nose and big floppy feat... and I'll see YOU in a bit.



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Positions in LEH, SPX, USO
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