Five Reasons Why Buy-and-Hold is Dead
Millions of Baby Boomers’ hopes of a decent retirement lie in ruins at the altar of this buy-and-hold concept. Is there a better way? That would be an interesting topic for further discussion (and I’m sure, debate) in an upcoming article. Here, I want to discuss 5 factors that, in my opinion, are contributing to the slow-but-sure demise of the buy-and-hold concept. 1. Easier access to brokers, cheaper commissions, and the rise of ETFs.
Do you remember calling a broker and placing a trade? Did you ever second-guess your intention while placing the trade? Thanks to fast access to the web that most of us have become accustomed to over the past several years, action often precedes thought. People frequently take longer to deliberate over a Chinese take-out menu than they do over placing a trade.
I often compare it to cash versus credit-card spending: Even though they’re substitutes for each other, they can have a different feel, and therefore instigate different behavior.
Furthermore, technology has dramatically driven down the cost of trading. Trading commissions aren’t considered to be a barrier to position entry or exit anymore. If a short-term opportunity crops up, investors don’t feel shy about taking action.
Furthermore, discount brokers did to full-service brokers what ETFs seem to be doing to their mutual-fund brethren. ETFs offer real-time pricing and instant liquidity, compared to the end-of-day pricing/liquidity of mutual funds. Forget long-term buy-and-hold -- many investors aren’t even willing to wait till the closing bell! Ultimately, easier access to cheap trading opportunities led to infidelity to the buy-and-hold thought process.
2. Easier access to information and susceptibility to peer pressure.
Ubiquitous communication enabled by more efficient and cheaper networking technology has worked wonders in making the world a smaller place. But there’s also a dark side. Investors -- by being connected with the rest of the world -- have added to their financial-information biases. I define this as an access to overabundant financial information that’s seduced investors into believing they really know a great deal and can keep up with the ever-changing landscape. In reality, it’s generated more heat than light: Information is no substitute for knowledge or actionable insight.
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So this thought pops up: hasn't all the money "still laying on the sidelines" that we keep hearing about, that has resolutely NOT returned to the market despite advice to get in, already indicated that more than investors' "trust" is altered? Volume has steadily collapsed for months. The basic dynamics of the market itself seems to be morphing as we have our worst thoughts confirmed repeatedly - stocks are not priced based on any discernible fundamentals or "value" considerations. If they ever were. Therefore "investing" is not changing, it is dying. To paraphrase your so apt quote, otherwise dormant "behaviors" emerge and dominate.
The emerging successful talents? Taking of other people's money under guise of righteous justice. Victimhood as profession. Doublethink.
Buy and hold/trading/gold in backyard/cash in mattress are all STRATEGIES. There is more than one way to skin a cat and more than one way to make money in the market. As long as people execute a strategy, they will be fine. When they toss the strategy out due to fear or greed that is where people get hurt.
Man, ya gotta love `merica. This society is completely set-up for the con-artists to rip-off the rubes. Soon I can get out-a-here, the better.
In a related vain, Technical analysis gains popularity in Bear Markets, and is tossed aside during long Bull Markets.
Its all an elaborate ponzi scheme and when the music finally stops everyone knows deep down that there won't be enough chairs for everyone. So people constantly move their money around hoping they'll find the next big deal. Investing used to be finding good companies which you believed had profitable futures. Now you are mostly left to guess where everyone else is going to put their money next or, even better, which companies will get the best governemnt bailouts and tax credits.
If it weren't for 401K plans the market would be a shadow of itself. As the baby boomers begin to not only stop contributing but actually want (and need) their money (or what they believe is their money) the giant fraud will be exposed. In essence we got a glimpse of what it will look like last fall.
As the dominoes begin to fall and people run for the exits what is your retirement account going to be worth?
My comment: Did buy and hold *ever* really work? It drives me crazy to hear stocks return X% over time (now). Once you dig deeper, you find out someone has usually made that calculation based on an index. And yet the index itself changes with time because companies die off or end up on permanent life support. (How many changes has the DOW scene recently?) Since any index would have been radically different even 30 years, those calculations border on completely useless, thanks to survivor bias.
*A* single stock might return high value over a time, if you bought when it was a startup or beaten down for fundamental reasons. But then you are taking a risk, which is not what people are looking for. You also need to exit at the right time, too. A great time to sell stock in a carriage company was about 1910.
Personally, I think people *might* 4% on money reasonably risk free over time. After that, risk increases substantially. Our plan is to just stay out of the water with most equities. I have a lot going on and for all the reasons pointed out in this article, I decided that I was never going to win in casual trading. It really is a full time job to keep up with the breaking waves of information.
From a physiological standpoint, I feel like we have a lot further to go in terms of this recession/bear market/real estate decline. (It helps that I have a family member who has chased every bubble so I can gauge where the "average" investor is at in terms of thinking about things. *grin*)
Right now, the mood feels like "grim hope". As in, I'll tough it out until the market gets better. The problem was the multi-year run up was so big (stocks and real estate) that quite literally this stuff is engrained in the culture. (HGTV and CNBC anyone?) I joke with my husband that the time to buy will be when everyone thinks we're nuts for buying. (Which is when it is a good time to buy.) But I think it's going to take a lot of time to get there before people will admit defeat.
If we acknowledge herding, buy & hold strategy gains over trading: when you are suckered in by the herd and buy, you make one mistake, while the trader in the same situation would make several mistakes as he repeatedly trades.
I consider myself an extreme buy and hold stockpicker: when buying a stock I immediately set a high (2X to 5X) target price and mentally write off the total purchase price. Generally will not sell unless the target range is reached, sometimes not even then. As a result, I own stocks for years, sometimes decades. Needless to say I've had my share of total losers, but overall I've made money, even over the last 5 and 10 years.
The thought that the average individual is going to trade their way to a profitable nest egg is delusional. Minyanville is a terrific site but suffers the same achilles heel as most financial resources, and that is non-verifiable trading results. This site needs Mr. Harrison and the Minyans to provide model portfolios that are audited and verifiable from a third party. Only than does the information provided here and those that provide it have actionable credibility.
If you really gauge your relative right, maybe you could rival the Smitster for predicting the bottom and the onset of the next Bull Market, when Buy and Hold really will work again (for a while). Of course, we'll be a bit more gray by then.
Or a bit more green. Arrgh, too many puns to choose from... around the gills? within the wallet? without the wallet, in hybrid SUVs? or worshipping at the porcelain goddess?
" I immediately set a high (2X to 5X) target price... Generally will not sell unless the target range is reached, sometimes not even then"
As a result, I own options for days, sometimes weeks! And I've made money, even over the last 5 to 10 months!
If you take all the households that owned stocks as a whole, they made money, however, if you take out people like Bill Gates, and all sorts of other rich folks who founded companies that went public, you find that the remaining households lost money! I forget the time frame involved but the bottom line was that the stock market is just a way for insiders to cash out. Taken as a whole, we all know that there have been some money making stocks worth buying from an insider, if you knew when to sell.
Also, good risk management would require even a buy and holder to rebalance things every once in a while.
With luck, and dividends, the rate of human progress should produce about 2-4% per year, as you say. Most Bull Markets are simply P/E expansions- optimistic people are willing to pay higher amounts for a given dollar of earnings. And while I do not believe in Buy/Hold, I agree with Brett A.- 90%+ of traders will lose money, and 99% of new traders will. The solution? There is none. But if the next wave down is a Third wave, it will be the last "easy" money to be made on the short side, for those who think they can join the 10%.
No problem. Considering how deep they got themselves into the housing bubble, though, I suspect it will be a while before they admit to the fundamental flaws in their strategy. ;)
"But if the next wave down is a Third wave, it will be the last "easy" money to be made on the short side, for those who think they can join the 10%."
What do you mean by the Third Wave? I've vaguely heard of wave theories but I haven't yet gotten to researching them.
Elliott Wave theory,
See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_theory
and: http://www.elliottwave.com/introduction/apply_elliott_wave_principle.aspx?code=ecg&articleid=0


















