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Random Thoughts: Bobbing For Apple


Beta plays look bullish today.


Editor's Note: The following content was posted this morning by Toddo in real time and is being republished here for the benefit of the Minyanville community.

Hurry Up and Wait! - 10:41 am

  • Oh, it's gonna be one of those days? At this point, I'll take two steps...

  • N's over S's, as we suspected, with some tertiary jig in the energy and metal space.

  • You can learn a lot just by watching. Stocks that are green in the face of fugly futures--this morning, it was Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOG), Apple (AAPL), Baidu (BIDU) and Research in Motion (RIMM)--speak volumes about underlying agendas, at least for a trade.

  • Mr. Practical brings up a great point, one that we discussed as a reason for optimism. The perspective to understand where we are allows for an advantageous approach. Selling blips and buying dips (as opposed to the other way around) will put some wind in your sails during a bear market.

  • The most bullish thing on my screen? Beta.

  • The most bearish thing on my screen? Slippage in the financials (through the lens of the higher low we discussed).

  • Could this be a simple rotation of risk? Shirley.

  • Ring my Belle!

  • There's alotta chatter out there regarding the growing acceptance of Euros. Hoofy and Boo, as usual, were ahead of that curve.

  • Is the clock moving backward?

Back to Back, Chicken Shack. Son of a Gun, Better Change Your Act - 12:07 pm

Gotta love Mercury Retrograde. For the second session in a row, our vaunted systems browned out and sent Hoofy and Boo into a incoherent, self-loathing diatribe. We're back (tongue bit) and, as my screens springs to life with bickering, flickering ticks, I offer the following thoughts as they flow through my fingers:

  • I'm rolling up my Apple (AAPL) stop from yesterday's low to yesterday's close ($121ish). Why? First, it locks in a credit (baring a gap lower) and two, it's consistent with my current M.O. to keep risk tight and my belly tighter.

  • S's over N's seven ways till Sunday out there. While it could be a simple rotation, the smoke in the poke bears watching. BKX 88 and BKX 85 are near-term levels of support (and would keep the potential positive divergence in play).

  • Make no mistake, given the choice, Ben & Hank would opt for hyper-inflation over deflation. Why might that not be possible? If foreign holders of dollar-denominated assets balk and walk. My sense is that they would have done so long ago if they could figure out how to do it without pulling themselves down in the process.

  • In Minyanland, we've got over 4000 parents and kids since our embyonic inception and before any true marketing push. I'm telling ya, this is gonna be bigger than even I thought and I've never been accused of thinking small!

  • We're all confused, what's to lose?. You can call this song the United States Blues!

Wishbone Dressing - 1:01 pm

The bipolar stroller continues to spin as the banks, homies and retail scream bloody murder while beta, energy and metals act like a million bucks. I love 'em, I hate 'em, I love 'em, I hate 'em... Jeezums, is it any wonder folks are confused?

As I shovel my salad into my stomach and await a flurry of afternoon calls, I share the following fare without virtue or vice:

  • Could that be reverse dandruff in the banks? It could...but they've gotta hold BKX 88, which is right here, right now and almost back there.

  • What am I doing? Less, to be honest. I'm still heavy on the powder and short with the leash. When I take some stabs, I share the process as we did with Apple (AAPL), but you should never trade just to trade (or write just to write). Different markets call for different approaches. Adapt, don't conform.

  • Not sexy, I know, but sexiness is best left for the catwalk. On the catwalk.

  • Keep half an eye on NYSE breadth, which are somewhat slippy at 3:2. 2:1 readings, either way, qualify as a tell.

  • The catalyst, if we slip, will be credit card deliquency chatter but Minyans have been ahead of that curve for a while.

  • Gratitude is latitude. Be thankful for what you have rather than saddened by what you've lost.

  • So, I've challenged MV Executive Producer Chachi to a UFC style cage match. He's ducking me but hey, can you blame him? I'm no joke these days.

  • Deep breath, Minyans, we're almost home.


Position in AAPL

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

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