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Random Thoughts: A Market of Stocks, Not a Stock Market

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As the Monday's play out, keep a close eye on financials.

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  • While I'm eying a potential perfect storm-and remember, alotta things gotta line up for it to arrive-the destination pales next to the path that we take to get there. That's why the Trading Gods invented tea leaves, to help us find our way.

  • As long as the financials can hold a bid, there's hope for Hoofy. Again, Boo is using S&P 1370 as his backstop with one eye on risk definition and the other eye on quarter-end.

  • After a meaningful decline from 230 lbs to 193 lbs, "taking it easy on my torn meniscus" has edged me back to the other side of a deuce. I'll call it an overweight (not oversold) bounce and will officially get back on the healthy horse on the other side of this weekend.

  • Note to Textron (TXT): Sneaking out an earnings miss post-close on a summer Friday won't win you any friends on Wall Street.

  • If I had to pick an ETF, I would choose China, based purely on price. It's worth noting, however, that I don't have to do anything.

  • There was a long time when General Electric (GE) was considered the most critical stock in the equity universe. It handed that distinction to Citigroup (C) for many years and now, according to my pen, Goldman (GS) and Google (GOOG), in tandem, share the baton. Still, it's an important stock in the marketplace. We noted the technical break in early May (when GE broke $32) and thar she blows. Next support is $27 and Pep's PnF analysis "works" to $25. So you see it.

  • I shoulda had a G-8! The standout action this morning is the greenback, which is taking it on the chin, giving back some of last week's gains and lighting a match under the commodity space.

  • The most bullish thang on my screen? The chips and brokers, which are sharing the leadership baton.

  • The most bearish thang on my screen? Apple (AAPL), which is laggy after breaking the May lows at $172, as noted last week on the Buzz.

  • The cause for the biggest nose scrunch? Europe couldn't catch a bid on the back of Friday's strong stateside close.

  • Petty Winwood? Strong, although I would have preferred more duets between 'em. Still, Can't Find My Way Home and Gimme Some Lovin' (their two duets) were pretty impressive. Many kind thanks to the Klaiman Clan for their Hahspitality!

  • I have no position in Lehman (LEH) but I prematurely evacuated from my Goldman (GS) calls as a function of a perceived hook-up (despite going on TV last Wednesday, while the stock was tickling $160, and offering that it could rally into earnings). What is it they say about opportunities being made up easier than losses?

  • Someone in Boston asked me how Minyanville was going. I said "You know that scene in the Titanic when Jack and Rose went into the engine room? It's sorta like that--shoveling a LOT of coal into the engine as the ship navigates systemic icebergs." My sincere expectation is that the analogy ends there!

  • Heads up Yo-the Monday's will be gone before you know it and the meat of Mercury Retrograde will pass on June 19th. So, we've got that going for us!


R.P.

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