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Randoms: S&P 920-950... Mr. Valentine Has Set the Price!


The moment of truth approaches.

  • The first thing that jumped out and bit me this morning? Phoebe, who seems to know that I'm playing in pain. The second thing? The dollar, through the lens of our updated Wishbone vibes shared this morning.

  • To that end, I would also draw your attention to Professor Mish's excellent vibage (that ties in Professor Kostohryz's thoughts) regarding the greenback attack.

  • T+3. No, I'm not talking about trade settlements, I'm talking about the "know thyself" rule that it always takes me three days to establish rhythm following an extended respite.

  • You know what's weird? Other than my sense of humor and the oddness of my toes? Prevalent psychology. Bulls were mocked from October 2007 through March 2008 and you couldn't find a constructive bent near the lows (although, to be fair, there were some vocal bovine). Now, bears are considered Cassandra and bulls are strutting around like they own the joint. Maybe it's just me but I was taught that markets are more attractive at lower levels and riskier higher.

  • Don't be ashamed of your mistakes, be proud of them. They're what define your experience.

  • Everyone and their other cousin Daryl that bought the breakout has stops set under S&P 920. On the other side, S&P 950 is THE line in the sand for 2009.

  • With so many folks staring at the narrowing range, will the first break be a head-fake?

  • When does collective psychology shift from, "Awesome, we avoided Armageddon!" to the massive issuance of late which 1) tilts the supply/demand equilibrium and 2) dilutes the pooh out of equities?

  • Farm boy, fetch me a pitcher!

  • I know Eastern Europe doesn't "matter" anymore but so it's said, overnight lending rates in doubled last night.

  • Don't trade as a function of your P&L, trade as a function of time, price and risk management. The mechanics of the swing should remain constant regardless of the color of your bottom line.

  • If this Minyan thing doesn't work (gawdfabid!), I suppose I'm stopped out?

  • Dicier than the Bellagio! We strive to see both sides in the 'Ville so we're gonna do just that.

    • Hoofy is focusing on S&P 920 as his backstop, the underlying bid in the banks (Wells Fargo (WFC), Bank of America (BAC), JPMorgan (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS)) and greed seeds sprouting in big beta (Apple (AAPL), Baidu (BIDU), Google (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN)).

    • Boo is eying 3:1 negative breadth, a firm bid in the dollar (+1%), massive issuance (dilution) at every turn and S&P 950 resistance above.

  • As Minyans know, I nibbled into some smallish S&P and Amazon downside exposure Monday and added to them into yesterday's pending home sales pop at S&P 950 (OK, S&P 949.43). Being honest (always), the former bet is currently has a green bottom line while the latter matter is pretty in pink.

  • Remember, the key to successful trading is to define an advantageous risk-reward profile while our ducks align. If the quack count is mixed, adjust exposure accordingly. For my part, as I "trade around" my current bias, I made some covers into the slippage, have room to put exposure back out and, worst case scenario, defined risk resides above.

  • We asked Minyanville Underground Railroad Ambassadors to "report from the front" last night and the feedback has been insanely amazing. We'll be sharing their anecdotal inputs from around the world and I wanna thank each of them for, well, being part of the solution. If you would like to climb aboard The Critter Express, lettuce know!


  • Happy Birthday Minyanville CMO Charlie Mangano! We'll be gathering in force Thursday night at the Red Lion (9pm) for some Petty and Stones in celebration of Chaz and MV COO Tom Eggers, so if you're in NYC and wanna cut some rug, feel free to stop by!

And finally...

As some of you know, I'll be unleashing Memoirs of a Minyan next week, which is a first person account of a young man programmed to believe that net worth was self-worth and success was measured by money.

I chased the cash register looking for validation in a bank account but never took the time to realize there was a difference between having fun and being happy. Some might say I feel into a trap, bowing to the false idolatry of money, and perhaps I did.

I've been compiling this for ten years and many of the stories have never been told in public or private. It was originally written as a book-and I in fact received an offer to publish it-but decided instead to release it as an eBook, posting one chapter each Wednesday over an 18-week period. I sincerely hope the "message" comes through as intended and is enjoyed by ye faithful.

As always, I hope this finds you well!


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