Random Thoughts: Google, Baidu and Apple Breakout
The Baidu, Apple and Google breakout seemed too easy yet, there they go.
Editor's Note: The following is a recap of this morning's Buzz postings. They are being reprinted here for Minyans to understand the thought process and stream of consciousness of Toddo's trading.
Gate Sniffage! - 9:50 am
- Well, now we know why Citi (C) traded so heavy relative to its peers yesterday, eh? $30 remains one of the more important levels in the marketplace.
- Well, that and S&P 1490. And Apple (AAPL) $200. And Baidu (BIDU) $400. And Google (GOOG) $700. OK, I'll stop.
- On the heels of the 2007 themes, the 2008 themes are starting to crystallize. They'll prolly resonate while I'm trying to relax next week, which would be typically torturous and consistent with the process of a classic over-achiever.
- RIP Benazir Bhutto. I'm not "current" with her policy, per se, but nobody should go out like that. And yes, it does "matter" at some level as it introduces geopolitical uncertainty to an already fragile region.
- Asset class deflation vs. dollar devaluation is alive and well. It's also why crude $100 is a drag on the consumer but precipitously falling crude would likely be more indicative of equity vulnerability.
- For the like of me, I can't get the Diff't Strokes theme song out of my head. Grr...
- It's the last day at MVHQ for moi and we'll be hosting a pizza party for President Fish and his kids, along with a handful of other children as they bang on Minyanland. As for our fantastic staff, they officially have the option between SushiThursday, Steak Sandwiches and Steak Sandwiches. Thoughts, team?
- Let's bring it home, Minyans--we're almost there.
Johnny Bravo! - 10:45 am
- Minyan Editor Woo Bear just yelled "You see riots breaking out?" I immediately shot back "what's the symbol?" before I realized he was talking about Pakistan.
- Like a moth to a flame, Janet, S&P 1490 and Citi (C) $30 are flickering quicker as traders bicker. I don't view them as mutually exclusive, for what it's worth, as they'll likely hold or fold together.
- Breadth is 2:1 negative but the dollar is down and beta is brimming. File the BIDU's and Google's and Apple's of the world as "over-thinking" as it seemed too easy yet, there they go.
- I offered a while back that there would likely be $100 billion bank write-downs and I can't imagine we're that far off. The fact that the tape remains, what, 5% from all-time highs is somewhat astounding.
- We continue to buy time with hopes that a legtimate recovery unfolds and with the intention of weaning ourselves off the central bank liquidity crutch. I will continue to offer that these are the most interesting times in the history of the financial markets.
- More importantly, SushiThursday narrowly beat out Steak Sandwiches as the last lunch, of sorts, and Meehan is already sharpening his chopsticks. Well deserved, team, you guys do a fantastic job day in and day out and it is my forthright intention that each of you becomes a Minyanaire many times over!
- Pork chops and apple sauce. Swell.
Answers I Really Wanna Know... - 11:23 am
- Why do folks focus on risk when the spread is red and eyeball reward when the screens are green?
- Shouldn't it be the other way around?
- Y'all see NYSE internals edge 3:1 negative?
- As S&P 1490 (and Citigroup $30) morph from floors to ceilings?
- With the tape thinner than Kate Moss on Atkins, how does that factor into potential afternoon volatility?
- As Aunt Fannie (FNM) and Uncle Freddie (FRE) have been great tells of late, what does it mean that both are giggling green in the face of stern seas?
- With upwards of $500 trillion in derivatives tying the global machination together, isn't it tough to foresee which pebbles will have the most profound implications for the pond?
- Whatchu talkin' bout Willis?
- You see Google (GOOG) frippin' the crimson switch?
- Maybe it was too easy?
- Has anyone seen Hank Paulson and Claude Rains in the same room at the same time?
- Sprung from cages on Highway 9?
Serendipity - 12:29 pm
Who says you can't teach an old dog new tricks? Just as our internet connection at MVHQ fritzed--a rare occurrence that would typically incite an internal riot--both the sushi (for staffers) and the pizza (for the Minyanland focus group) arrived. They say music tames the savage beast? Try on some fresh fish for size! Wasabi!!!
As my screens flickered to life, a crimson hue imbued my desk. Talk about edging out on the ledge during a thunderstorm--S&P 1490 and Citi $30 are the corners of the building--the margin for error seems to be thinning. 3:1 negative internals, the banks back at multiyear lows, geopolitical uncertainties, massive support trying resistance on for size. Yeah mon, it feels like this one is gonna go down to the wire.
As far as whether this is related to the unfortunate news out of Pakistan, I would answer "Does it really matter?" Price is the ultimate arbiter of our financial fate and just as it didn't matter why the markets are up for the year, the downside catalyst is equally unimportant. Indeed, given how interwoven the financial fabric is, the pebble in the pond can take many different forms.
Thoughts into the close? Caution, based on what I'm seeing, with a close eye on the technical toggle. Tapes that are heavy all day tend to end that way, we know, although I'll toss in a notable caveat. With everyone away and nobody home, it won't take a lot to spur the lot--one way or another--into the close. That, to me, is a recipe for doing less.
And grabbing more sushi, which I'm about to do. As always, I hope this finds you well.
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