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Monday Morning Quarterback: The Evolution of a Dream


Now unveiling Minyanville 5.0!


We've been busy beavers behind the scenes as we officially unveil Minyanville 5.0, the latest iteration of our community platform. As with most launches, there are bound to be glitches and twitches as you chew through the Critter Experience, so thank you in advance for your patience as we step through this milestone and set our sights on the next.

President Fish and the rest of the MV management team has asked me not to communicate the forthcoming "exciting news" and as they're my family, I will respect those wishes (picture me biting my lip). Suffice to say that over the next few months-and years, for that matter-we'll continue to evolve, grow and do our part in harnessing the amazing energy that has come to define Minyanville.

In terms of the tape, my current positioning stands as I wasn't stopped out of select exposure in select financials such as Morgan Stanley (MS), Wells Fargo (WFC) and the call options formerly known as Citigroup (C) and Bank America (BAC). Discipline dictated moderating my risk into Friday's close-and I did in real-time on the Buzz-as uncertainties loom and risk remains.

I also, so you know, unwind the downside bet in Apple (AAPL), which was a trade for the day and a function of "eyes" (it didn't open higher with the rest of Beta, suggested supply). You can learn a lot by watching and that "hedge' proved profitable for a few couple of points in a few hours.

Before I turn my attention to the tape, I would like to again thank ye faithful who "get it," and by that I mean those who understand that the Minyanville mission is to provoke, rather than shape, thought. I bring this up for obvious reasons and with our "gratitude is latitude" mantra in mind.

Some Random Thoughts:

  • The 2:1 negative internals on Friday once again told us all we needed to know about the heartbeat of .

  • Last week, while eyeing the financials as potential upside leaders-and remember, they rallied 26% in a six-session span-we noted the technical churn that was perhaps the greatest caveat to hanging with Hoofy. That remains in play and warrants all kinds of respect as we together find our way.

  • Seeing both side, the window we discussed-the S&P is higher than it was following the transfer of power-remains. In fact, "my brother," who has the best pure trading feel I've ever seen, called me last night to share that he foresees a sustainable rally that lasts a few months. I told him that remains viable although, seeing both sides, the "churn" (see the bullet above) keeps S&P 600 within our probability spectrum.

  • Which, as discussed, is why I've shifted some dry powder from my long-term nest egg should we see the whites of their red eyes.

  • Seriously, if 50,000,000 more people lose their jobs by 2009-as offered by the International Labor Organization-does the specter of social unrest really seem so far-fetched?

  • Has anyone ever seen Snoop Tony Dwyer and the AOL IM Smiley Face in the same room at the same time?

  • What a game! The two smartest people I know in sports-a honcho for MNF and my buddy who makes his living making and taking bets-both called me Sunday to say that the "under" was the best bet on the board. I took it-and lost-proving once again that nobody is smarter than the market, be them sports or financial. Either way, it was one of the ages and it was a shame someone had to lose.

  • True medicine: How much time and at what price?

  • "The coming week will be laden with economic data and the focus on Washington will continue to drive trading activity. Over the weekend, the President reiterated that Secretary Geithner will be unveiling a financial markets plan "soon." The President advised that a goal of the plan will be to lower mortgage rates. Lower mortgage rates was an initiative mentioned toward the end of the previous administration. As far as we know, this is the first time that the current administration is adopting it. Lower mortgage rates would be an important component of a recovery package. The Republicans remain in open revolt on the stimulus, further fueling market uncertainty. The plan is supposed to pass in the next 2 ½ weeks. Rounding out the catalysts, the jobs report is released Friday, capping off what should be an eventful week." --BTIG Uber-Strategist Mike O'Rourke.

  • Are you working like a dog to get to the weekend and spending all weekend readying for the week ahead?

  • The weekend WSJ highlighted the crossroads of protectionism and globalization.

  • This is old hat for Minyans, who again received the financial news they needed to know before they knew they needed it.

  • As I've gotten older and wiser, I've come to learn that everybody has their "stuff."

  • We're witnessing a "reverse industrial revolution," one where every industry is being forced to rethink and revamp their business model. This is scary and dangerous but it will pave the way for winners in the new world order. Our goal in the 'Ville is to make sure you're in a position to prosper from it.

  • Broke and Broker? The IMF projects total losses for banks and financial services companies could total $2.2 trillion by the time we're through with this process of price discovery.

  • We're gonna be punching through the new 'Ville seven ways till Sunday so thanks again as we do our part to stick this landing. Good luck this week, Minyans, and remember that profitability begins within.


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Position in MS, WFC, BAC, C
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