Was That THE Low?
Bulls look to rally into the close.
Testy Testy Testy - 12:56 pm
The second probe has arrived and with it, angst levels have upticked in kind. This is your friendly Minyanville reminder to remove emotion and remain lucid. This is what we've trained for and Minyans know more than most about the what, where, why and how this is all happening.
While our warmest wishes and white light extends to those feeling the heat, the onus is on us to turn obstacles into opportunities. This is our time to shine. And shine we must.
Some thoughts from the front lines:
As i said this morning at the NASDAQ marketsite, a "crash" is certainly within the probability spectrum. It rarely occurs when so many are expecting it, however, which is one of the reasons I believe the risk will be pushed out on the curve.
In terms of my particular stylistic approach, I pared some of my opening purchases into that initial Snapper and used this second probe to add back some risk. I may be tempting fate and tickling irony but I continue to trade this fray from the long side.
Every time I return from someplace warm and healthy--like Miami, for instance--and listen to police sirens wail as I try to fall asleep, I ask myself why I live in New York City. I've gotta get out of this place, if it's the last thing I ever do.
Finally, in the interest of balance and caution, three things scare me. The first is a crisis in confidence as it relates to the Federal Reserve, something we've been talking about as THE risk for five years. The other is the dollar, which I continue to feel lurks as a real danger (if and when it rallies). The last is the VXO, which is tamer than my brother in his Honeydew marriage.
Radio Face! - 2:22 pm
Not to be "that guy" but I did some video bits for our friends at Yahoo Finance this morning. Five in total, three of which have posted thus far.
In terms of the rest of the day? Hmm, let's see. Food at a point. Maybe a bathroom break (but not banking on it) and a heckuva lotta volatility into the close. I will offer that American Express (AXP) acts like it wants to trade higher although I haven't pulled that trigger (yet). I've made my bed, er, bets and I'm keeping powder dry for further disconnects, if and when.
Finally, in my continued "Being John Malkovich" moment (with Television's JeffMacke® playing the role of big John), I'll be doing some FOX Business scoreboard tonight between 7-8. I'll tell ya, when getting up at 6:00 AM to get beat down by a Bulgarian black belt is the highlight of my next 24 hours, I've got some serious issues. Well, we already knew that, right?
As always, I hope this finds you well.
Allow Myself to Introduce... Myself - 2:43 pm
A few quick thoughts as we ready for what promises to be a wild and woolly close. I'll tell ya, this tape is nuttier than Austin Powers' coffee... and it trades that way too! Without further adieu:
- I respect the risk in the system. Old school Minyans know that and newbie Villers should. I will say, however, that the sheer magnitude of "Dude, you're out of your mind!!!" emails for writing something remotely constructive on the financials speaks to the lopsided Louie in place. The time to be bearish on the banks was last summer when they were at all-time highs, not now. At least that's my take.
- Blame brushes abound but let's not forget there are alotta good folks who work at these firms that are being taken behind the woodshed. Human beings. With families. And pets. And nothing much else anymore. A little compassion goes a long way and energy comes full circle. Take the high road please. It's less crowded and boasts a better view.
- I'm very tempted to take a stab a Lehman (LEH) here (on the long side). And American Express (AXP). And... OK, breathe. One step at a time and always allow for a margin. JEEZUMS, look how fat that Lehman vol is!!! I'm going with AXP for a pure schnitz and again, this isn't intended as advice (I don't know your risk profile).
- Gotsta hop, Rabbit. Be back.
It was the Dukes, it was the Dukes! - 3:15 pm
I only caught half the sentence but I believe Hank Paulson just said something to the order of "for all those people complaining about moral hazard, take a look at Bear Stearns' (BSC) share price. That's the alternative." He's right---but he's also very wrong. Taking medicine and being injected with artificial stimuli are two completely different discussions.
In the interest of clarity, I'm not looking for THE low, I'm simply looking for a meaty trading rally. And I'm unsure if it starts from here or from lower levels, hence the approach I've shared all day. A wise man once said that you can pick the direction or you can pick the timing but you'll rarely nail both.
Yahoo video #4 is a discussion on the big picture, including threads to the Great Depression. Yeah, I know--I don't wanna be that guy either--but it speaks to the importance of time horizon and risk profile. We're in for a long road but there will be excellent upside opps along the way.
I am, in the interest of full disclosure, feeding some ducks into this latest lift and "trading around" a long thesis. And no, I'm not upset that I completely A.D.D.'d doubling down on Apple (AAPL) into the teeth of the sheath. It happens... a lot more often, it seems, these days. Onward, Yo!
If YOU were holding your finger above the Plunge Protection Button, when would YOU hit it?
Fare ye well into the bell.
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Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at email@example.com.
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