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Randoms: Banking on More Capital


Financials sress test the bears.


Editor's Note: The following was posted in real time on our premium Buzz & Banter (click for a free trial). It's being shared here for the benefit of the Minyanville community. See also Sitting on the Widow's Peak and The Pop & Drop.

The Hop & Chop - 11:32 am

  • You wanna hear the definition of frustration? Passing on profitable trades to get timely content to ye faithful and having a 30 minute system freeze delay the real-time utility. Does anyone remember where the road paved with good intentions leads to?

  • The "easy" trade today was likely this first fade lower. Now, with the S's near the flat-line, Hoofy will attempt to make a stand and a statement. I don't think he's got the Mott's but I'll operate with discipline over conviction as we find our way.

  • The obvious theme is "S's over N's" as evidenced by the lethargy in Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN) and the semis vs. stubbornly sticky energy and the snazzy banks.

  • To that end, as go the piggies, so goes the poke so IF (monster if) the financials can forge higher, it'll significantly shape the tape.

  • In addition to Bank America (BAC), we can now monitor the "fabulous" Wells Fargo (WFC), which is said to need $15 billion in new capital as a result of the stress tests. And yes, if I owned 290,244,868 shares, I would publicly opine it was "fabulous" as well.

  • I would also draw Minyan eyes towards Deutsche Bank (DB), which is the heavy Betty in the bunch for the second straight session and off 6% since Monday's close.

  • Remember all the discussions we had about voluntary and involuntary thrift? I think it's safe to say that what was once voluntary is migrating across the chasm in waves.

  • And here's to you, Mr. Mathison, as Minyans channel white light to Babs. We sincerely hope this finds her well.

  • Drizzam! Remember the uber-important downtrend line we noted on the homies yesterday? Wait, was that yesterday? I honestly don't remember, all these days are melding into one wild trip. Anyway, the HGX is getting rolled and names like Pulte (PHM) (-13%), Centex (CTX) (-13%) and KB Homes (KBH) (-9%) are getting smoked like a Philly Blunt.

  • Did I mention that I carry a small stone with me at all times and each time I touch it or take it out of my pocket at the end of the day, I think of something I'm thankful for? Between my bromance with Jack Bauer and the early morning spin classes, you might have some doubts about me but I assure you I'm all man. Gratitude is latitude and I've got no qualms about carrying a 'gratitude rock' to remind me of all (and who) I'm thankful for.

  • Did I just write that?

Minyan Mailbag: Indian Market Coverage - 12:30 pm

I am sharing this exchange with ye faithful as it touches on two important points. First, the addition of the uber-talented Sushil Kedia to our roster of Professors -- people who are very good at what they do but better at who they are. Welcome, my friend, welcome to the machine!

Secondly, as Minyanville enters this next phase of our growth cycle (following the achievement of a milestone last week), we'll be expanding our editorial presence to Europe, Asia, India and other corners of the globe. This will take some time, naturally, as we hand pick our Professors and won't add content for content's sake. Simply know we're working for you and will do our best to make you proud to be part of our community.

Prof. Sushil,

Minyanville has been my most important source for financial insights over the past two years. The focus has always been on the US markets. Understandable because almost every author is US based. I still follow the site avidly because our markets have a fairly high correlation with yours. However, for the first time today I saw an author - you - who follows the Indian equity markets. I'm wondering if it is possible for some short notes/articles once in a while on how you see the Indian equity markets.

I know the audience for such articles is very limited but if you do see value for Minyanville in doing this, it'd be fantastic to see some coverage of the Sensex/Nifty.

-Minyan Pratash


The proximity bias (let me invent that phrase if its yet not in the mumbo jumbo of investing psychobabble) may not actually make me any better in my guestimates of the gyrations of the ultimate Goddess, the markets. However, I do track most Asian markets closely, often tick-by-tick and generally hour by hour. So, I hope to write for being shredded and recycled to think better before I touch the keyboard again across markets, ideas where I have per my belief something useful to share.

-Sushil Kedia

Answers I Really Wanna Know... - 1:14 pm

  • Are you giving the 2:1 positive NYSE internals respect regardless of your posture?

  • According to Deutsche Bank, with several assumptions in place, Bank America (BAC) will need to issue 2.5 billion shares, 45% more than its current float. How is that not massively dilutive?

  • Who is gonna buy that supply?

  • Girls, tell me where specifically is the weirdest place that you personally, girls, have ever gotten the urge to make whoopee?

  • Is it possible to link the Grateful Dead Garden Party too many times?

  • If the dollar breaks below the right shoulder of that defined dandruff, will asset classes scream "game on" as the measuring stick shrinks?

  • Isn't that the single biggest risk to bearish bets in the near-term?

  • Am I chasing lost opportunities by buying half of an Apple (AAPL) put position into that Snapper attempt?

  • Did you know that Crazy Horse wore a small rock behind his ear to "keep him safe in battle"?

  • Are you taking your vitamins?

  • Don't I feel silly for stressing so much when lugging the BHP Billiton (BHP) when it was trading with a 2-handle?

  • Have you turned your Mini-Minyans on to Minyanland to teach them earning, spending, saving and giving?


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