And They're Off...
Good luck Laurie!
Lets forget the markets for a sec and let me tell you about the new "kids" in the family
The first foal of Ski Lodge, a chestnut colt, was born last Thursday. He was a bit screwed up in his back legs, initially, but the vets and the knowledgeable people at Woodlands Stud have fixed it all up, it seems. His father, Coolmore Stud's High Yield is now standing in Argentina.
Jactris, our super mare, had a daughter last Sunday. A bay filly by Desert Prince, and she is quite a sort apparently. Very leggy. A keeper, says Lisa. Jactris's ¾ sister, Vouvray, runs in a half million dollar, 1 mile race on Saturday in Melbourne. It appears to me that she will run about 4th, flashing home late!
Now let's see about risk.
I wrote of a horse but it got screwed up in transmission and so here's last week's blurb-
I saw that Alinghi won that race today at Saratoga. Money has never been easier to collact at a racetrack. She paid 4/5 which, by my calculations, is an 80% return on your money. You would have to have your money working pretty hard in any market to get that sort of return, especially in 2 minutes! I'd hate to annualize that rate!!
I mentioned the other day that our mare Ski Lodge had a colt. Since then we have been informed that he's had some serious leg problems and that he may be a cripple should the current splinting of his hind fetlocks not fix the contraction problem. Any ideas Lila?? He might just be our little "Forrest Gump" (although I refuse to sleep with the Stud Manager in order to get his legs fixed, unlike in the movie!).
The really good races start in earnest this Saturday with the start of the Spring Racing Carnival. The bookmakers have framed their initial markets for the biggest races- The Cox Plate, the Caulfield Cup and the Melbourne Cup. Punters can back horses to win those races now, even though they aren't run for another 6-8 weeks or more. It gives opportunity to get some big prices on horses that may or may not even qualify for such races. Injuries and loss of form can also come into play. But it's a chance to have a small bet on some horses at juicy prices. One such little gem was thrown my way last Saturday morning.
I've got this mate down here ya know, one of nature's finest gentlemen and sharpest legal minds - let's call him Saint Thomas of Randwick. He has been involved in horse racing for many years and has "been there, done that and got the T-shirt" when it comes to "the track". He gets some "good oil" occasionally from some of his many contacts in the game. When St. Thomas speaks, I listen. I got the call on Saturday morning. "Loz", he says, "there's this horse running today in Melbourne. It's a certainty-have the house on it. It's 6 to 1, fixed odds, at the off-track betting shop right now. Get on! Furthermore, I think and (more importantly) I'm told by someone who knows, that it's good enough to win the Cox Plate!"
The Cox plate is the weight for age Championship of Australasia, run over 10 furlongs on turf for nearly $5 million prize money. The winner's roll is the "who's who" of Australian racehorses. Only one horse, my favourite of all time - Kingston Town, won it 3 times in succession in the '80's. Only the very best horses win this race and here's St Thomas telling me that a horse that had only ever raced twice, over 5 furlongs, without greeting the judge, was a good bet to win the biggest race on the calendar.
On Saturday morning it was 400-1 to win and $100-1 to run 2nd or 3rd.
Lisa and I got on. We bet $50 the win and $50 the place. We now have a ticket saying that if he wins, we get $25,100 and if he runs second or third, we will collect $5050. I decided not to bet on it in the Saturday race, as I wanted to have a look at this little puppy go around, without the emotion of having any hard-earned on it. The race was 6 furlongs and he drew the widest gate. He jumped quickly and crossed the field to lead comfortably. He got out to about 2 or 3 lengths as they turned for home and the others were catching him quickly. They got to his shoulder with a furlong to go and I thought he was toast! The jockey gave him a little kick in the ribs and whoosh, he jumped out of the ground and powered away to win by 3 lengths. Bloody impressive and the jockey never pulled "the persuader"(whip). But, can he run nearly twice that distance against the best of the best? I dunno, but the bookies immediately slashed his odds for the Cox Plate to 100-1 and 25-1.
I dunno if he's good enough to even get into the Cox Plate field but I'll take the 400's anytime! A very big exposure for such a little outlay is always attractive. Something like a very low delta option. We'll keep you informed as to how he progresses and if he makes the field, we'll all be screaming for him. His name is Danerich. A 3 year old son of super-stallion Danehill. A better bred animal would be hard to find.
Anyways, Danerich runs tomorrow in a Grade 1, $500K , 6 furlongs on turf, at the same place they run the Cox Plate. Hmmm. If he wins this race I will officially get "excited".
Danihilate, our very slow gelding, races on Saturday as well. I wouldn't back it if I could use your money!! He is just one of those horses that just "looks good", but has no "giddy-up".
Across every sphere, a "good looker" with "giddy-up" is very hard to find.
Enjoy the weekend.
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