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Random Thoughts


Seven hours till the important stuff!


  • Who wants to have the foggiest idea?

  • "There is little to report in the way of outstanding price action. Technology was the market's biggest winner, but commodity chemicals showed 1-day improvements, and look like reasonable bounce candidates. Late day stories had gas and crude moving higher after seeing their lowest levels since the hurricane's aftermath. The reversal intra-day probably has more room, but the markets are filled with fear and uncertainty regarding supply, which is featured in sentiment figures, and that leads us to believe that the commodities are better interim sales." Lehman technician Jeff DeGraaf

  • Succo thinks that Roger Federer will be the greatest tennis player of all time. While he's pretty impressive, I think it's way too early to hand over the throne.

  • I offered yesterday that I've got a little bear on my left shoulder whispering "resistance and reality" and a small bull on my right shoulder who is convinced that the longer we hang tough, the more likely it is that performance anxiety (N's over S's) will influence the quarter-end script.

  • It's not only our right to question our government, it's our responsibility.

  • Laurie McGuirk (position in gold and silver) steps up from down under: "Hi Gents, Gold looking nice at present but appears capped around 449 spot. Silver looked lovely buying again sub $7. Check your moving averages and long term trendlines. Gold feels 436 again soon for me-just gut talking (and clearly not advice). Downside in gold seems limited to 420, IMO, with significantly more upside than the $20 at risk. Silver looks lovely below $7 and dips like last week (sub $6.80') are proving very profitable for some swift operators. Some reading for the Minyanfolks as we've touched on some of these themes during the past 24 months:
  • When your best player drops an easy third down conversion, chances are that the two-time defending world champs will make you pay. He did, they did and just like that, the Raiders are 0-1.

  • Bill Withers never got the snaps he deserved.

  • In case ya missed it: Texas Instruments (TXN) beat guidance, Intel (INTC) wasn't as jazzy as the whispers and Yellow Roadway (YELL) has some potholes (guided lower).

  • Gold, which closed yesterday at a fresh '05 high, continues to toss the leadership baton back and forth with the energy patch.

  • There are three more FOMC meetings this year and Fed Fund Futures are pricing in a 76% chance of a second rate hike before baby New Year arrives (up from 28% a week ago).

  • For the week ending Sept 7, AMG Data reported net equity outflows of $54 mln, or outflows of $249 mln ex-ETF activity.

  • Run, Forest, Run!

  • BKX 100. XBD 173. One sword. Two edges. Shave carefully.

  • Ophelia's potential paths.

  • Please don't forget those in need. The Ruby Peck Foundation is almost half way towards our stated goal of raising $100,000 in the month of September to help those displaced by Hurricane Katrina.

  • Energy constraints?

  • Ain't no sunshine when she's gone...

  • Snoop Tony Dwyer offers the other side of the bovine ride:
    • The top-down '05 and '06 estimate reductions this week were due to the introduction of a new estimate that expenses options. Mike Gyure, FTN Midwest's Sr. Accounting Analyst, estimates options expensing may reduce '05 S&P 500 operating estimates by roughly 5% or $3.50/share based on current estimates. On an apples to apples introduction, the estimates would have been revised higher.
    • It is important to note the meaningful increase again this week in the bottom-up estimates for both '05 & '06.
    • The SPX is currently trading at just 15.8x top-down '06 and 14.3x bottom-up '06. Our '06 SPX price target remains 1440 (likely to be conservative). We get to our target by using the average monthly multiple since 1985 (excl. 1999&2000) of 18x a midpoint estimate of $80 (no longer the midpoint between top-down and bottom-up estimates due to upward revisions of both).
    • Our favorite areas remain Info Tech, Capital Markets related Financials and Industrials due to a solid fundamental, historical and technical backdrop.

  • I have a ton of respect for Tony-I tell him all the time-but I can't help but wonder if multiple contraction will flummox those using a historical basis of comparison after a historically outlier bubble.

  • The world's largest casino?

  • Duuuuuuuuude! I lost my safe!

  • Good luck today!

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