By Todd Harrison Sep 09, 2004 11:31 am
Here comes the 200-day!
Tear drops on the city
Bad Scooter searching for his groove
Seem like the whole world walking pretty
And you can't find the room to move
The moose is loose in the city of critters as traders embrace their minxy stock jitters. If ever there was a dichotomy on the street, it is evident in today's fray. There's some good (Nokia (NOK:NYSE) and Texan (TXN:NYSE) up 7%), some bad (S&P complex) and some ugly (Brazil -2%). Now we've just gotta make sense of it all, something that is easy to say but much tougher to do.
The wishbone crystallized in the early morning (on the heels of the two tech specs) and it was clear that a rotation was in the works. I'd be willing to bet a boat load of Twinkies (yum!) that the N's outperform the old school but what remains unclear is whether it's relative or absolute performance. The jury is still out (breadth even, semis up 2.5%, financials down) but I'm more comfy being long some puts in the latter than calls in the former. Heck, with volatility so low, that's not a mutually exclusive situation!
What is clear is that S&P 1110ish and NDX 1380ish are trendlines from the Auggie lows (and, in the case of the S's, the 200-day moving average). I opined on the Buzz earlier today that testage in that regard wouldn't shock me although visions of the Iron Horse and Snoop Tone are dancing in the back of my crowded keppe (not together--that's a tough visual!). I respect the "electoral clarity" trade but still believe, in my gut, that a disconnect exists between the level of vols (VXO 14) and the reality of life. That doesn't mean the gap can get gappier--we know that--but that's a dicey bet in my view.
Away from the stock fray, Crude Earl is dancing 1.6% higher, the metals continue to struggle with supply and the dollar is a stone's throw from DXY 90. On the catalyst front, Conference USA continues to offer stock specific situations and Beeks will swing by tomorrow with the PPI report. There was a time that I would get excited about this particular release but the sad truth is that I don't trust the numbers. Jaded at 35? I suppose--but if the BLS made scales, I would have already won the weight bet!
That's it from the critter pit as we duke it out without a pout. I sincerely hope ye faithful are finding your way and that we've learned to patiently await our pitch. Capital preservation is the first step towards profitability and the weeding out will focus on those trying to leap frog their limitations. Take a deep breath, don't press and leave the guessing for those unimpressing--we've got a long way to go before thy closing bell tolls.
I'll be back.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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