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Buzz & Banter

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So far today, like last Friday, the buy signals are dramatically outnumbering sell signals. Given today's weakness I thought it was important to point out that the pullback we are seeing is thus far simply a pullback, i.e. no technical damage is surfacing.

The dollar is continuing to get waxed and looking at the near month contract several things suggest that the counter-trend rally that took us above the 99 level has concluded. Weekly momentum is within a hair of crossing to negative and the momentum readings typically trend very nicely in the futures arena. Nothing goes up or down in a straight line so, as long as the dollar remains below 99, the technical outlook remains weak and the dollar vulnerable to further declines.

I also wanted to comment on International Business Machines (IBM: NYSE). Now understand I've been wrong on the stock once already (when it broke 81), so without trying to compound that situation, enough people are focusing on the stock that I think it's worth mentioning that on a point & figure chart, no matter whether it's a 1x3 or longer-term 2x3, the 90 level is more of a longer-term resistance level than a breakout level.

No positions in stocks mentioned.

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