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Climbing the Vine

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Good luck into the close!

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Run,run, run for the roses
The bigger it opens, the sooner it closes
Meddle, meddle, friend of mine
All good things in all good time


(Jerry Garcia)


Talk about a giant beanstalk! Any seeds of doubt that were planted by Friday's fugly jobs data have sprouted into flowers. As the bulls smell the roses and the bears wipe their noses, we're left to wonder when the tape will plunder. Indeed, that's the thorny question of the session and it's turned into a stock obsession!

Today's rally, in and of itself, isn't a complete shocker as a recent assimilation of our metrics yielded a more constructive posture. Even the most steadfast bears have (seemingly) gotten out of the way and the "sellers strike" has as much to do with the action as the underlying demand. Yes, we've seen some institutional buying today and that can't be ignored. When the supply siders walk away, however, the equilibrium is skewed further to the right.

The most troublesome aspect of the current juncture, in my estimation, is the capitulatory flavor in the marketplace. Higher prices beget short memories and the conventional wisdom is that the negatives no longer matter. Too many bulls? Old news. Low VIX? New paradigm. Insider sales? They didn't see the cliff, how are they supposed to see the valley. That's the current mindset and until the red swells reemerge, nobody will question the manner in which the gains are logged.

While we've spoken about the positive evolvements and I respect the momentum, I will again remind you that a balanced and unemotional approach is necessary when making financial decisions. For some fakakta reason, investors are conditioned to look for opportunities in a rising market and examine risk after prices have dropped. That's a bit backwards, my friends, and a proactive process will serve you in good stead.

Tomorrow begins our animated auction and it'll officially kick off the countdown to the Critters Choice Awards. Please join our ever-expanding list of supporters as we further our philanthropic vision of improving the lives of children. At the end of the day, it's something we can all be proud of!

Have a peaceful night.
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