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Random Thoughts


The dip shtick is good and thick!

  • Weekday's with Bernie (and a lil' Snoop flava to boot)

  • The financials remain a focus as the BKX probes resistance (BKX 100) and the brokers flirt with all kinds of upside acne (XBD 173).

  • Minyans will notice a facelift on today's Buzz. This is the first of many steps that we're taking to improve the critter experience. If you have any thoughts on what you would wanna see when we revamp the 'Ville, feel free to share your vibes. We aim to please, ya know...

  • Short Bonds?

  • "The SPX had its best day in the last 65-days yesterday. Though breadth was a shade under 3:1, volume flows were their most impressive (5:1) since the thrust off of the May lows. This is further confirmation to the likely absorption of the horrific footage and tales out of Katrina's path. The likely direction of energy prices from the aftermath of Katrina is lower in our opinion, and that is likely to boost discretionary names such as WMT. The secular path of energy prices, however, makes the corrections buyable in energy, and the top formations built in many of these discretionary and industrial names more inhibiting to the bulls in the intermediate term." -- Lehman's aptly named technician Jeff DeGraaf

  • Meehan has this picture on his desk (not that there's anything wrong with that).

  • DJIA 10,537 is both the 50- and 200-day moving average. Keep that on your radar for future reference please.

  • Exit strategy?

  • If you haven't been to Jamaica, Mon, you're missing a heckuva good respite.

  • Homie!

  • "Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) are both hitting new 52-week lows this morning. For educational purposes, how does one know when to exit short positions and take money off the table? There is no "right" answer, of course. Point & figure conventional vertical downside price objectives still suggest lower long-term prices (emphasis on long-term) for both. Meanwhile, both FNM and FRE show extreme readings in weekly negative momentum, and both are getting closer to registering potentially significant daily DeMark downside exhaustion readings. The longer-term conventional vertical price objective for FNM is 36, and for FRE it is 48, not advice." -- Kevin Depew on today's Buzz (position in FRE).

  • The German DAX is knocking on a finski (5000) for the first time in three years.

  • What, no homework?

  • Some of yesterday's upside was due to an unwind of bearish bets/protection on the heels of Katrina. Further upside will be a function of A) the "stimulative" bet (on the rebuild) or B) a long squeeze (performance anxiety into quarter-end).

  • The weekly Investor's Intelligence survey shows an increase in the percentage of bulls to 52.1% vs 51.1% prior as well as a rise in bears to 28.1% vs. 27.3% prior.

  • Steady as she goes?

  • The long hard road continues for many market participants. While I believe that the weeding out process will remain in motion, I'm hopeful that some of the doldrums will pass as Labor Day fades into the rear-view.

  • A closer look at the S&P pit.

  • Please help us help those unable to help themselves. The Ruby Peck Foundation has raised roughly $35,000 for victims of Katrina (since we launched our effort September 1st) and our goal is to reach six figures by month end. I know times are tough and money is tight but each and every gesture is appreciated. Thankyoueversomuch!

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