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Random Thoughts


The action today is very sector specific!


  • It is word of mouth that finds believers and those who believe who finds those mouths.

  • This is an utterly embarrassing story but I should be flogged if I didn't share it. I was driving back from DC yesterday and immediately noticed that I had 1/4 tank. No worries--I'll just get on I-95 and take care of it. I saw signs for the Maryland House (rest stop)--16 miles --and charged on despite the little "E" on my gauge and the yellow light on my dash. I would be remiss if I left out the fact that there were at least three gas stations at each of the four exits that preceded my arbitrarily chosen pump of choice. Yep--I fumed it...and came to a stop on the left shoulder of I-95 about a mile short of pay dirt. This is the freaky part--no sooner did I stutter to a stop and a Maryland Courtesy tow truck swings in behind me with extra petrol. I am certain that Ruby was watching over my shoulder and was giving me a wink for keeping an eye on Grandma.

  • Hinting at a "hand stand."

  • I nibbled on some defined risk October puts in the financials on Thursday. With the stochastics this extended and the rate backdrop perception hawkish, I deemed it a decent risk/reward vs. my book.

  • As told by those that behold gold.

  • I heard "I'm a believer" by the Monkees during my drive home yesterday and I CAN'T GET IT OUT OF MY HEAD.

  • The San Diego Chargers!

  • Detroit Tigers (by the tail).

  • Lehman's aptly named technician Jeff DeGraaf, while noting that several of his indicators are now in a positive configuration (in the context of a "neutral" overall trend for the Minx), offered the following tidbit: "Seasonally the market has entered into the weakest period on the calendar. Whatever returns develop in the next 2-months, the commensurate volatility is likely to make the harvest challenging."

  • What is it they say? A bird in the hand is worth...

  • The Minyanville weigh-off bet was scheduled to begin today (we've already got 14 people signed up) but in an effort to give those late to the buffet an opportunity to participate, we'll extend the deadline to tomorrow morning on the opening. The particulars are as follows: Whomever has lost the highest percentage of their total weight on Wednesday October 20th (six weeks) wins the bet and bragging rights. Losers, er, those who weren't big enough losers will donate $100 to the Ruby Peck Foundation for Children's Education. Either way, the kids win and we're motivated to lose some poundage. Starting weights will be posted tomorrow (you can use an alias) and we're operating on the honor system. Get involved!

  • The metals are gettin' smelted as we edge through the post-Labor Day haze. The yellow metal has breached the 50- and 200-day moving average while white lightening is off another 5% (9% in the last coupla sessions).

  • Football season on tap and baseball playoff races in motion. Noice!

  • The electoral clarity trade (which is slowly improving the technical metric) will help the collective psychology until the fundamentals and structural fragility emerges with a vengeance.

  • Front month crude futes are off 2.5% in early Tuesday trade after Hurricane Frances missed the U.S. offshore production facilities in the Gulf of Mexico (easing supply concerns). Neal Dingmann wrote a superb educational analysis on the fundamental state of affairs earlier today that is a must read for Minyans of all ages. Further--and in the never-ending search for metric legs under our trading table--my point & figure maven just gave me a heads up that the OSX (on a 2x3 chart) broke a bullish catapult formation on Friday at 114 ("works" to 146). Not advice--we don't do that here--but the goal in trading is to line up as many ducks as possible and two seem to be quacking in synch.

  • I hope the chicken was little!

  • Remember those cyclicals we discussed last week? They're toying with CYC 700 and are a kitten's whisker away from an all-time high.

  • Hence my diet...

  • Thank you to all the DC/Baltimore Minyans who trekked to the Sunday Minyanfest. It was a pleasure to meet/see you guys.

  • I was gonna short some Hershey (HSY:NYSE) on the Minyanville weight loss bet but thought better of it. ;-)

  • Breadth remains sticky green--2:1 on the NYSE and 9:5 on the Nazz.

  • If you miss a trade--as I did this morning in silver when I attempted to short a slug at $6.57--don't look back. Profits, as always, remain nestled in the trades ahead.

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