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The Fokker Chronicles



Heads up:

Economic reports will be quiet today but looking ahead to tomorrow, lookout for the MBS Mortgage Applications, Fed's Beige Book, and Consumer Credit for July. Elmer will also be taking the mike tomorrow morning to testify before the House Budget Panel on the economy and the deficit.

Brokerage Chatter:

UBS cut Cypress Semi (CY:NYSE) from buy to neutral following lower guidance and takes FY'04 numbers from $0.82 to $0.67 while for FY'05 to $0.60 (vs. $1.17 cons). UBS also cut Lexmark (LXK:NYSE) from buy to neutral. Lehman lowered the semiconductor sector from neutral to negative. Individually, Lehman dropped National Semi (NSM:NYSE) from overweight to equal weight. CIBC upped Cisco (CSCO:NASD) from sector perform to outperform in looking for an acceleration in growth over six quarters. Lehman lowered Cephalon (CEPH:NASD) from equal weight to underweight. Deutsche Bank lowered ChevronTexaco (CVX:NYSE) from buy to hold. SG Cowen believes cons estimates for Texas Instruments (TXN:NYSE) will be cut after what they think could be a disappointing mid-quarter update tomorrow.

Financial Headlines:
Stories :

Several newspapers and brokers citing the minor effects the busy Hurricane season will have on the insurers. Bloomberg cited some brokers as having too high a damage estimate. Meanwhile the Wall Street Journal which also highlighted the more generous environment for the insurers since the '92 Andrew Hurricane insinuated it might be too generous. This might come back into focus during forecasts if they can't raise their premiums as a result of the storms as they had done following Andrew. Hurricane Ivan which is not yet the strength of the ones that have recently come before it is gaining the spotlight this week as it plows through the Caribbean.

Crude futes were down a buck in overnight trading, some citing relief from Hurricane Frances missing some key oil and gas production plants in the Gulf of Mexico and the OPEC president commenting that they may raise the production ceiling at the Sept 15 meeting.


Circuit City(CC:NYSE) pre-announced its 2nd quarter revenues above consensus estimates.
Seagate Technology (STX:NYSE) guides Q1 EPS to $0.06-$0.08 vs. $0.03 cons on rev's of $1.48 - $1.52 bln vs. $1.47 bln cons

Around the world in 80 ticks:

AP news cited Presidential hopeful John Kerry as offering his plan to withdraw Iraqi troops in 4 years. In a move that could have been out of a movie, John Kerry spoke with former President Clinton bedside from his hospital room Sunday night for nearly 1 ½ hours. Mr. Clinton advised Kerry that he should place less emphasis on Vietnam and focus more on contrasting his plans for domestic issues with President Bush

In the daily terror report, officials offered that the United States and its allies have moved closer to capturing Osama bin Laden in the last two months, while Fox news reports that Pakistan dismissed that report saying there has been no new information.

Have a great day.


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